Without Trump’s tariffs, goods prices would have dipped, say New York Fed economists — as 71% of Americans say they’ve driven prices up

The economists found that foreign suppliers made few price concessions after the 2025 tariffs took effect. As a result, nearly 90% of the tariff increases translated into higher prices for goods entering the United States. Those costs rose almost immediately, while retail prices took longer to respond, the research notes.

“Goods price inflation was back near its slightly negative pre-COVID average for most of 2024 and began to edge up late that year, before the new tariffs were introduced,” the economists wrote.

The researchers estimate that roughly a quarter of a tariff increase eventually reaches consumers through higher goods prices. About one-third of that impact comes from American-made products. Ironically, tariffs intended to support U.S. manufacturing can make American-made goods more expensive, particularly when manufacturers rely on imported materials and components.

Trump’s tariff campaign escalated with the “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2, 2025, when he unveiled sweeping import duties targeting dozens of U.S. trading partners. The plan imposed a baseline 10% tariff on most imports, with higher country-specific rates ranging from 11% to 50%, according to The Hill.

Although the Supreme Court has since struck down many of Trump’s tariffs, opening the door to billions of dollars in refunds for importers, their effects on consumer prices have not necessarily disappeared.

What the findings mean for household budgets

A separate study published in September offers a closer look at where consumers felt the pinch the most.

Researchers from Harvard, New York University and Universidad de San Andrés in Argentina tracked prices at five major U.S. retailers and found that imported goods became 4.3% to 6.3% more expensive between March and October 2025, depending on the benchmark used.

Furniture and household equipment were among the hardest-hit categories, reflecting their heavy reliance on Chinese imports. Food and electronics saw smaller overall increases, though coffee was a notable exception.

Even shoppers seeking cheaper alternatives weren’t spared. Within the same product categories, prices for the least expensive imported goods rose about one percentage point more than those for the most expensive options.

These price increases also carry a broader financial cost. The Tax Foundation estimated that tariffs increased household expenses by an average of $1,000 in 2025, with that burden expected to fall to $820 in 2026 following the Supreme Court ruling.

By late 2025, many Americans were blaming tariffs for higher prices. A November 2025 survey by ABC News, The Washington Post and Ipsos found that more than half of respondents believed tariffs were worsening inflation, with households concerned about rising grocery and utility bills.

Those concerns have persisted well into this year. A Sept. 28 Ipsos poll found that 71% of Americans said they had noticed prices rising on products they purchase because of tariffs, up from 43% in February 2025, just before the Liberation Day tariff announcement.

Are tariffs inflation or a tax?

The debate over tariffs and inflation has intensified this year, as soaring energy prices have added to the cost of living and complicated the Fed’s efforts to contain price growth. Policymakers raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point in September, their first increase since 2023.

At the center of the debate is whether tariffs are fueling lasting inflation or are better understood as a tax on American consumers.