Kalshi users have wagered $33 million on the outcome of Michigan's senate race — and most bets are on Abdul El-Sayed

Some of those bets are heavy, too. On Kalshi, users have bet more than $33 million so far. As of 10:30 a.m. ET, a $1 bet for an El-Sayed victory would earn users $1.24. Contrarians who bet against the candidate winning would walk away with $4.27 if Rogers wins.

Polymarket users would largely push in the event of a El-Sayed victory. A $1 bet would return even money, but a $10 bet would return $12. If you were to bet that same $10 on Rogers and the Republican candidate were to win, it would return $45.

(Polymarket does not display cumulative totals for bets on its pages.)

Hotly contested race

In an election season that’s had plenty of drama, the Rogers-El-Sayed race in Michigan has still managed to capture national attention.

Donald Trump and members of his cabinet have strongly supported Rogers, with Trump repeatedly using Islamophobic rhetoric, calling the Democratic candidate “Abdul Ramadan” or “Mohamed,” and labeling him a “jihadist” in some speeches. He has also said El-Sayed, if he wins, will have to go through a metal detector before he enters the Senate floor if he’s elected.

Things took an unexpected twist on Nov. 1 when Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed, threw her support behind Rogers. That came just a day after she had said she planned to support El-Sayed.

LIVE: See who the markets favor in the midterms

Prediction markets and elections

While there are plenty of critics of platforms that allow people to wager on election results, those sites did prove to be remarkably accurate when it came to foretelling the results of the 2024 election.

The midterms could be a big test for the markets, though. And they stumbled in Brazil’s recent elections, as wagers strongly predicted a Flávio Bolsonaro victory on the night before the vote. Bolsonaro lost and fled the country.