If Trump genuinely believes inflation has been solved, many Americans will likely be left scratching their heads. A new batch of inflation data published last week shows consumer prices leapt 3.5% from June 2025 to June 2026. Much of the increase stemmed from higher gas prices that resulted from Trump’s decision to launch a war with Iran.
While gas prices have steadily dropped from their highest level this year, they still remain significantly elevated. As of Nov. 3, the national average for a gallon of regular gas registered at about $4.15, per AAA.
Patrick de Haan, head of petroleum analysis at the Gas Buddy price tracking firm, observed in a social media post that gas prices have set a new record for the highest national average on Election Day.
Record high gas prices for midterms
Indeed, gas prices are higher when compared to the last midterm election cycle in November 2022. Prices for a gallon of regular gas stood at about $3.80 in the week leading up to Election Day in 2022, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Trump campaigned in 2024 to bring gas prices below $2 per gallon, a promise that’s currently far from within reach.
On Nov. 3, many Americans filed into polling stations to cast their Election Day ballots as Republicans scrambled to hang on to both chambers of Congress. But the Republican Party faced significant headwinds to do so due to voters expressing broad dissatisfaction with Trump’s handling of the economy.
Trump has also repeatedly brushed off economic concerns during campaign appearances and TV interviews. More recently, he said during an Oct. 24 campaign rally in Georgia that oil and gas companies were profiting handsomely from the war in Iran due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices.
“I don’t give a damn,” he said. “I’m going to say it. We’re making a freaking fortune.”
Where gas prices go after the midterms
If current trends hold, due to a reduction of commercial oil shipments reaching global markets, oil prices per barrel could remain in dreaded triple-digit territory. The EIA forecasted in early October that crude prices will hover around $105 per barrel for the final quarter of the year.
The same federal forecast does offer a hint of possible relief from current gas prices: The EIA projected that average gas prices would fall to $3.60 per gallon next year. Still, that’s higher than the national average of $2.98 recorded just before the start of the Iran War on February 28.
Joseph Zeballos-Roig is a policy and politics journalist based in Washington D.C with a focus on economics. He is experienced in connecting the significance of events in the capital to the lives of everyday Americans whether its taxes, tariffs, interest rates or federal programs.
