Trump claims $22 trillion is pouring into the U.S. through foreign investments — almost double what the White House estimates

Trump reiterated the investment claim the following day during a Fox News interview about the dividend, saying the U.S. was “taking in $21 trillion.” In his closing remarks at the Dallas convention that night, he put the figure at $22 trillion, according to Roll Call.

The White House has touted its own list of massive investment commitments, but its numbers fall well short of Trump’s claim.

Its online tracker puts total new U.S. investment at $11.2 trillion, including both foreign commitments and planned spending by American companies. Among the largest foreign pledges are $1.4 trillion from the United Arab Emirates, $1.2 trillion from Qatar, $1 trillion from Japan, $600 billion from Saudi Arabia and $500 billion from India.

A $22 trillion claim meets a skeptical public

The discrepancy comes at a sensitive time. With the Nov. 3 midterms approaching, Americans are already showing growing skepticism toward information coming from Washington.

As Moneywise recently reported, a new survey from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research and USAFacts found that fewer than half of U.S. adults trust information from federal government agencies. Just 11% said they have trust in federal government information overall, down from 18% in 2024.

The skepticism runs deeper when politics and the economy enter the picture. Just 18% expressed high trust in federal information about inflation and the cost of living, while only 13% said the same about elections and politics.

Those two concerns are increasingly colliding ahead of the midterms. On Wednesday, Trump predicted that oil prices would be “tumbling downward,” but only after a Republican victory in the midterm elections, when he also expects the war with Iran to end.

But even if energy prices retreat, Trump’s $5,000 dividend could create an inflation problem of its own.

Could the $5,000 dividend fuel another bout of inflation?

The size of the proposed payout is part of the concern. The plan could cost about $1.35 trillion, depending on who ultimately qualifies, Kent Smetters, faculty director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model, told Fortune.