The post came a day after Lululemon reported disappointing second-quarter results, with revenue and gross profit declining. Shares plunged in after-hours trading and continued falling the following day, closing down more than 17%. The stock has since fallen below $100.
Burry’s bet dates back to 2025, when he began building a position through his now-shuttered Scion Asset Management. According to filings available on Dataroma, Scion held 50,000 shares in the second quarter, valued at $11.9 million at the end of June 2025, before doubling its position to 100,000 shares the following quarter. The stake was worth roughly $17.8 million at the end of September.
But the latest results have forced Burry to rethink Lululemon’s value. After reviewing the company’s earnings, he said his “IV15” estimate had fallen “rather dramatically.” Burry’s IV15 metric is the price at which he believes the stock could deliver a 15% annualized return over 15 years, based on his expectations for the company’s future cash flows.
The quarter offered plenty to challenge those expectations. Lululemon’s comparable sales, a closely watched measure that strips out much of the growth from opening new stores, fell 9% globally. Revenue fell 8% in the Americas, while mainland China revenue rose 4% as reported but declined 2% after excluding currency movements.
One of the more troubling declines came from a product at the heart of Lululemon’s business: women’s leggings. Sales in the category fell roughly 20% during the quarter, Reuters reported.
Lululemon is well below Burry’s ‘load up’ price
Back in February, Lululemon looked cheap enough for Burry to buy more. In a Feb. 2 Substack post, he said he was “adding to [his] position a bit” and called the $150 range his “load up the truck price.”
As of Friday, LULU traded about 35% below that level.
Wall Street sees more pain ahead. Morgan Stanley recently cut its LULU price target to $83 from $93 and maintained an “underweight” rating. As Investing.com reported, the bank expects Lululemon to pursue a “shrink to grow” strategy as it tries to revive the business, with further cuts to earnings estimates likely along the way.
Burry has identified another possible path to upside. In the same February post, he said Lululemon remained an attractive candidate for a founder-led or private-equity buyout. An acquirer would typically need to pay a premium to win over shareholders, potentially giving early investors a gain even if the underlying business takes longer to recover.
