‘No one should hold their breath’: Jared Bernstein says consumers paid 90% of the cost for tariffs but won’t see refunds. How to protect what's left

That's because while businesses can apply to recover what they paid, the millions of Americans who absorbed what he claims as 90% of those costs through higher prices have no way to claim that money back.

In other words, for many households, the tariffs functioned like a one-way tax.

Businesses will get refunded for the costs consumers covered

Following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated the administration's use of emergency powers to impose certain tariffs, companies are now lining up to reclaim what they paid.

More than 3,000 businesses — including major players like FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) — have already taken legal action or begun filing claims, even before the official application process fully launched.

But there's a catch.

Only importers who paid the tariffs directly are eligible for refunds (2). Although the bill explicitly states, "importers, wholesalers and larger businesses… should pass on the refunds to their customers," it isn't likely to happen.

Goldman Sachs analysts, as reported by Forbes, do not expect any price decreases, adding that the odds of consumers receiving any relief are "negligible" (3). Additionally, they made note that if it were to happen, it wouldn't happen quickly.

Trump himself has said that tariff refunds would take time (4).

"It has to get litigated… It's not discussed," the President said in a February press conference. "It will end up being in court for the next five years."

That leaves out millions of Americans who faced higher prices at the checkout line as companies passed along part of the cost.

Estimates vary across publications, but research consistently shows Americans bear a substantial (and growing) share of the cost of tariffs.

One study from New York Federal Reserve economists found that Americans were shouldering as much as 94% of tariff costs at one point in 2025, with only a small portion absorbed by exporters (5).

Meanwhile, data from the Yale Budget Lab suggest that roughly 76% of the cost was passed through to consumers by the end of 2025, with some goods seeing near-total pass-through (6).

That means a meaningful portion of the estimated $166 billion in tariff revenue didn't come out of corporate balance sheets — it came out of household budgets.

A cost with no rebates

For consumers grappling with rising costs, the situation leaves a bad taste in their mouths. Consumers face a growing list of financial pressures, chief among them inflation. And inflation, in turn, is driven up in part by tariffs.

In 2025, the Trump tariffs cost Americans an additional $1,000 in taxes (7). If they had stayed in effect, the Tax Foundation estimates that those costs would have risen to $1,300 in 2026.

And with refunds flowing back to companies, Jared Bernstein says that might eventually trickle down to consumers in lower prices for items. There's no guarantee that those savings will be passed down at all, however.

So what can you do?

If there's one takeaway from all this, it's that consumers may have to take matters into their own hands.

While you can't apply for a tariff refund, you can look for ways to protect and increase your cash flow.

Build a buffer

One place to start is simply making sure your savings are working for you.

A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.

A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%.

That's ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC's March report.

Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4.30%.

With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, you get access to up to $8M FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks.

You can also check out the Moneywise list of the Best High-Yield Savings Accounts of 2026 and find an offer that fits with your savings goal.

Look for ways to generate additional income

Finding ways to make up for the income lost to taxes is another good way to cushion the $1,000 blow. But many people can't work even more hours than they already do.

That's where real estate investing comes in.

You can tap into this market by investing in shares of vacation homes or rental properties through Arrived.

Backed by world-class investors, including Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of vacation and rental properties, earning a passive income stream without the extra work that comes with being a landlord of your own rental property.