“They’ll pass massive spending bills that Trump will have no choice but to sign, given the leverage Democrats will have to investigate his grifts,” he wrote.
His warning comes as the federal budget deficit has already reached $1.8 trillion through the first 10 months of fiscal 2026, about $169 billion more than during the same period last year, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
The prediction
Schiff’s prediction rests on the assumption that Democrats will emerge from November’s midterm elections controlling both chambers of Congress. That outcome is far from guaranteed, but it is possible. Republicans hold an extremely narrow advantage in the House, with the current balance effectively 219-214 in favor of Republicans.
The Senate would be a tougher lift. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority.
Schiff argues that if Democrats pull off an upset, they could push for much higher spending and use their congressional investigative powers as leverage over Trump. That would not mean Democrats could force the president to sign their bills — Trump would still have veto power — but a divided government could lead to difficult negotiations over spending, taxes and government funding.
Still, large deficits would not begin with a Democratic Congress. Republicans have backed policies expected to add substantially to federal borrowing.
Trump’s signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by the Republican-controlled Congress in 2025, cut federal spending on programs including Medicaid, food assistance and student loans. But the government wasn’t simply spending less across the board. The bill also poured hundreds of billions of dollars into defense, border security and immigration enforcement, while extending and expanding tax cuts that reduced the amount of revenue flowing to the federal government.
The law is now projected to add about $4.2 trillion to the national debt through fiscal 2034 after accounting for its effects on the economy, according to CBO estimates cited by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Through 2035, that figure rises to roughly $4.7 trillion.
How bigger deficits can show up in your finances
No matter which party controls Congress next year, Americans could eventually feel the cost of persistently large deficits in their own finances.
