Dave Ramsey tells a broke 64-year-old he can have up to $200,000 by age 70 on a $55,000 salary. Is that just ‘fantasy’ math?

“Give me some good news, Carlos, for God’s sakes,” said Dave Ramsey to the caller.

Ramsey sees a path that leaves him debt-free and with $200,000 in retirement funds by 70. But is that path realistic? One commenter called it ‘fantasy maths.’

Here’s how the math works out — and what you can do to make sure you don’t end up in a similar situation.

The math doesn’t work out for Carlos to be debt-free with $200K by 70

With a yearly salary of $55,000, Carlos’s gross pay is about $4,583. That’s already starting him off on a bad foot — the average cost of living for people who live in New York City is around $6,096 per month.

Luckily, Carlos has an ace up his sleeve here. Housing is by far the biggest expense for New Yorkers, making up about 74% of that monthly cost of living figure. Carlos rents a furnished room for just $800, cutting his monthly cost of living down from $6,096 to as low as $2,385.

This gives Carlos a livable budget to work off of, but matching Ramsey’s budget is harder.

After subtracting the cost of typical living expenses from his monthly paycheck, Carlos is left with $2,198.37 per month. Around $940 goes to taxes, leaving him with $1,256 per month.

If he only spends on necessities for the next six years — something that’s not sustainable for most people — he can put all of that toward paying off debt and saving for retirement.

Carlos currently has around $40,000 in an annuity — the only retirement savings he has. Cohost Jade Warshaw uses the Ramsey Show’s investment calculator to find that, if Carlos put around 15% of his income in for the next eight years, he would have around $200,000 in his account. That would mean he was saving until he was 72, not 70.

But the math still doesn’t quite work out in Carlos’ favor. Ramsey recommends Carlos pay off his debts before he starts putting more money in his annuity, but that doesn’t allow him to take full advantage of the power of compound interest. Compounding interest makes up nearly half of the calculated $200,000 figure.

If he’s putting 15% of his pre-tax salary into retirement every month, he’ll have $688 less to spend each month, leaving him with only $568 of discretionary income.

The average credit card has an interest rate of almost 25%. That means Carlos’ $20,000 of credit card debt earns around $5,000 of interest each year. If he’s paying the full $568 each month on his credit cards alone, then he’ll be putting $6,816 toward his credit card bill each year — which mostly goes to interest.

He’s only paying off $1,816 of principal each year, meaning he’ll take over 10 years to pay off the credit cards alone. That doesn’t include his debts to the IRS or his medical debt — which will likely grow as he deals with his prostate cancer diagnosis.

One study found that the average cost of localized prostate cancer, or prostate cancer that hasn’t spread to other parts of the body, was around $14,453 over three years.

The calculator also assumes an annual rate of return of around 11%, which is significantly higher than the average rates of return on retirement products. With Carlos being near retirement, his portfolio will likely be in less risky assets, bringing his average rate of return even lower.