Sep 24, 2024
China plans to raise the nation’s official retirement age, a policy that addresses the country’s looming demographic and economic challenges. As the U.S. faces the possibility of depleted Social Security trust funds, many American workers might be wondering: Could we be next?
China’s increase – the first such adjustment since the 1950s – means the nation’s comparatively low retirement age will go from 50 to 55 for women working blue-collar jobs while women in white-collar roles will see their retirement age go from 55 to 58. Men’s retirement age will go from 60 to 63.
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The changes, which will be phased in over 15 years, raise the question about whether the U.S. government will have to hike its own retirement ages to preserve Social Security. The earliest possible age someone can qualify for Social Security is currently 62. The full retirement age for those born in 1960 or later is 67.
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Why China made the changes
China’s elderly population is surging, reflecting longer life expectancies in many nations likely brought on by higher standards of living and healthcare advances. But China’s birth rate is falling, partly due to the one-child policy that was in effect from 1979 to 2015 – an imbalance that means fewer young people are entering the workforce to support an aging populace. China’s working-age population (ages 15-59) has been decreasing as a share of the total number of people in the country, straining economic growth and putting pressure on the nation’s pension system.
The BBC reported that Chinese residents expressed their discontent online. "In the next 10 years, there will be another bill that will delay retirement until we are 80," a user wrote on social media site Weibo. “Are you asking me, when I’m 60, to compete with young people for jobs?” another Weibo user asked, per Bloomberg.
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Could this happen in America?
Long before China’s move, Social Security eligibility had become a reliable flashpoint in U.S. domestic and economic policy debates. The safety net program is projected to run out of sufficient funds by 2035, and without Congress making any changes, it will only be able to pay around 80% of retirees’ full benefits.
Raising the retirement age is one of several proposals to solve this issue, alongside cutting benefits for high earners and raising tax revenue. It would presumably help preserve Social Security funds by reducing the number of years people collect benefits.
But not all jobs are suitable for older workers, and extending working years could be harmful to some – especially for those in physically demanding roles. And because lower-income workers may rely more heavily on Social Security, raising the retirement age could disproportionately affect them.
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Regardless of the arguments, raising the retirement age will be politically tricky, since any increase in the age requirement would likely raise the ire of workers.
Earlier this year, a large group of U.S. House Republicans known as the Republican Study Committee (RSC) proposed raising Social Security’s full retirement age to 69 in their fiscal year 2025 budget proposal. It suggested gradually increasing the retirement age for those not facing imminent retirement to reflect longer life expectancies and improve the programs’ financial sustainability. Virginia Rep. Ben Cline, the group's budget task force leader, told Roll Call those now aged 59 would see an increase in the retirement age of three months per year beginning in 2026. The retirement age would reach 69 for those who turn 62 in 2033.
According to Center for American Progress analysis, "a full retirement age of 69 would cut benefits for all new retirees between roughly 12.5% and 14.3% by the time it is fully phased in. In addition, it would cost a median-wage retiree who earned $70,000 in 2022 and turns 62 in 2034 thousands of dollars every year."
Regardless of politics, China’s decision highlights the complex challenges nations face as populations age and economic demands evolve. Still, there may be lessons for the U.S. – worker backlash in China could be instructive to American policymakers as they consider changes, and China’s gradual phase-in of the change offers a peek into how a change might take shape.
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Christy Bieber has 15 years of experience as a personal finance and legal writer. She has written for many publications including Forbes, Kilplinger, CNN, WSJ, Credit Karma, Insurify and more.
