Arizona has lost half its SNAP users in less than a year — and is the 'canary in the coal mine' for the rest of the US

According to the CBPP, Arizona’s SNAP participation fell 48% between July 2025 and June 2026, a loss of more than 437,000 participants. For the first time, more Arizonans are now visiting food banks each month than are enrolled in food stamps, according to the Arizona Food Bank Network.

“We think of ourselves as the canary in the coal mine,” Natalie Jayroe, CEO of the Community Food Bank of Southern Arizona, told NPR. “We are showing the rest of the country a really scary scenario.”

The sharpest drops

The drop isn’t limited to Arizona. NPR reports SNAP participation has fallen in every state except Alaska since the One Big Beautiful Bill Act took effect and sweeping changes to the program were implemented.

According to the CBPP, participation has declined by at least 5% in 44 states and by at least 10% in 23 states.

Beyond Arizona, the steepest declines have been in Louisiana and Florida, where participation is 21%, followed by Oklahoma at about 18%.

Among the 19 states with available child participation data, more than 1 million children have lost food benefits since July 2025, NPR reports. The CBPP estimates the nationwide total is likely above 1.5 million.

Last year, an average of 42 million Americans — about 12.5% of the population — received SNAP benefits each month. As of April, that number had fallen to 37 million, according to preliminary Agriculture Department data, cited by NPR.

What’s driving the decline

The new Act expanded work requirements to cover more groups, including veterans, people experiencing homelessness, young adults aging out of foster care, parents of children aged 14–17 and people between 55 and 64.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, those work requirement changes alone are expected to reduce SNAP participation by an average of 2.4 million people each month between 2025 and 2034. The CBPP says the legislation also includes nearly $187 billion in SNAP cuts, the largest reduction in the program’s history.

The Agriculture Department has suggested the reduced need may partly reflect the reduced need due to an improving economy, as well as efforts to curb fraud. But CBPP senior policy analyst Katie Bergh disputes that explanation.

“What that’s telling us is that this is not happening because fewer people need help affording groceries. It’s the result of these policy changes,” she told NPR.

Bergh also pointed out that national unemployment has remained steady at around 4% since last July, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data cited by the CBPP, while grocery prices continue to rise.

The financial pressure on states — and what’s next

But the biggest challenges may still lie ahead.

Beginning in October, the federal government will reduce its share of SNAP administration costs from 50% to 25%, shifting a greater share of SNAP’s administrative costs to states. Starting in 2027, states with payment error rates of 6% or higher will also be required to help cover the cost of food benefits.

According to the CBPP, nearly half of all states could face penalties of $100 million or more under those penalty provisions.

The Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality estimates states will need to spend two to three times more on SNAP to keep the program running, potentially forcing tax increases or cuts to other programs.

A survey by the Urban Institute and American Public Human Services Association (APHSA) of 39 states found 29% may tighten eligibility requirements further, while 11% said they may have to suspend or even withdraw from SNAP if the new costs become unmanageable, NPR reports.

“There’s really an existential crisis in the future of SNAP,” Lexie Kuznick, APHSA’s director of policy and government relations, said of the situation.