Social Security is expected to give retirees their biggest raise in 4 years — but experts caution you're bound to be disappointed either way

Retirees won’t know the final figure until Oct. 14, when the last piece of inflation data needed to set next year’s COLA is released. But TSCL says even a slightly bigger increase may not provide the relief many seniors are hoping for as everyday expenses continue to eat into their budgets.

“Seniors don’t experience inflation as a percentage on a chart. They experience it when they pay the grocery bill, fill a prescription, pay rent, or receive an insurance bill,” Georgette Pam, the administrative director at the Senior Citizens League, told Moneywise.

How much more could your Social Security check be?

Pam explained that, especially for seniors who rely heavily or even entirely on Social Security, even a modest increase in essential expenses can erase much of the benefit of a COLA.

If the projection holds, the increase would show up in Social Security checks starting in January 2027. The adjustment is tied to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W. Social Security looks at inflation during July, August and September and compares the average with the same period a year earlier.

So far, the numbers have been running close to TSCL’s projection. CPI-W was up 3.4% year over year in July and 3.5% in August, leaving September as the final piece needed to calculate the increase.

But a COLA isn’t meant to function like a pay raise. It’s designed to help benefits keep pace with rising prices. Pam said the current formula doesn’t always reflect how older Americans actually spend their money.

“COLA can look adequate on paper while still falling short of what many seniors actually need to maintain their standard of living,” she explained.

Pam said one alternative would be the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly, or CPI-E, which gives more weight to expenses that make up a larger share of older Americans’ budgets.

“It places greater weight on the categories where older Americans spend more of their money, particularly healthcare and housing,” she said. “The goal should be a COLA that more accurately protects the purchasing power of Social Security benefits over time.”

Why a bigger raise still may not be enough

Geoffrey Schmidt, a CPA, registered Social Security analyst and founder of Holy Schmidt, says that headline number can be deceiving because a bigger COLA is an attempt to help retirees catch up with inflation.

“A bigger COLA isn’t a gift, it’s a symptom, “ Schmidt told Moneywise.”It’s bigger because prices rose more, so it signals more pain, not more help.”

Social Security is often only one part of a retiree’s income. A private pension may not come with an inflation adjustment at all, and investments don’t necessarily rise alongside the cost of living.

“If their other sources didn’t have the same growth, the retiree will feel like they can’t keep up,” he said.