Apr 5, 2024
After 46 years in the real estate industry, Dave Ramsey is confident about his real estate analysis. In an episode of “The Ramsey Show,” he took a victory lap on a prediction he made about America’s housing market in July 2022: there was “zero chance” of a housing crash.
Relatively steady home prices, despite higher interest rates, seem to have vindicated Ramsey’s bet.
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“You were wrong!” he said of his critics, adding, “I freaking know what I’m talking about.”
Here’s why Ramsey wasn’t convinced by the gloomy outlook on housing.
Supply crunch
When the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates in 2022, many were concerned that higher borrowing costs would reduce home sales and prices.
However, Ramsey claims he was skeptical of these concerns and was instead expecting home prices to remain steady or rise modestly. His thesis was based on simple supply-demand dynamics.
“When there is a shortage of an item … prices go up,” he said. “That’s basic economics.”
This theory seems to be vindicated by a report from the National Association of Realtors. Home prices climbed 5.7% over the past year as of February, with the median American home being worth $384,500.
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A combination of rising prices and rising mortgage rates has made home affordability deteriorate. In 2023, only 15.5% of the homes available for sale could be considered “affordable” by a household earning a typical income, according to data analyzed by Redfin.
Unfortunately, Ramsey says, he doesn’t see an end in sight for this housing crisis.
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Housing forecast
Factors that led to the current crisis are set to continue, at least for the foreseeable future. Analysis by Realtor.com revealed that the gap between the number of households formed and the number of single-family housing units constructed was 7.2 million in 2023.
“Prices will go up,” Ramsey predicted. “This is what’s happening with real estate. I promise you, you can look up this [episode] five years from now and you’re going to go ‘god, that old fart was right again.’”
As for interest rates, Ramsey doesn’t make a firm prediction but advises buyers to focus on prices instead and refinance when borrowing rates go down.
“Marry the house, date the rate,” he said.
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Vishesh Raisinghani is a financial journalist covering personal finance, investing and the global economy. He's also the founder of Sharpe Ascension Inc., a content marketing agency focused on investment firms. His work has appeared in Moneywise, Yahoo Finance!, Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha, Mergers & Acquisitions Magazine and Piggybank.
