Is Illinois about to shrink? 45 counties have now approved measures to secede the state — all because of Chicago. Here’s what happens next

The newest additions are Coles, Ford, Gallatin, Hamilton, Henderson, Macoupin, McDonough, Monroe, Piatt, Saline, Warren and Washington counties. Illinois Radio Network counts 44 counties plus 11 Adams County townships — the difference is Ford County, whose question wasn’t part of the organized campaign.

Indiana has spent nearly two years courting these counties with lower taxes, and for some Illinoisans that pitch holds up. For others, especially retirees, it backfires.

Why downstate blames Chicago

Supporters say state lawmakers cater to Chicago and Cook County and overlook the rest of Illinois. “The state legislature tends to not take us into consideration when they’re making their laws,” Newlin told FOX 32. She also said downstate has no voice in how tax dollars are spent.

But a study from Southern Illinois University’s Paul Simon Public Policy Institute found the money flows the other way. In 2016, southern Illinois got back $2.88 in state spending for every $1 it paid in state taxes, and downstate as a whole got back $1.70. Cook County got back 98 cents and the collar suburbs 60 cents.

The authors credit the state universities, prisons and parks located downstate, and their 2025 update says state spending still transfers some wealth from Cook County and the suburbs to downstate. New Illinois, a separation group, has called the study flawed.

Where would they go?

Organizers want to form a new state of their own, Newlin told FOX 32, and becoming part of Indiana isn’t the goal.

Indiana is making its pitch anyway. House Speaker Todd Huston, R-Fishers, authored a law creating an Indiana-Illinois Boundary Adjustment Commission, which Indiana Gov. Mike Braun, a Republican, signed on May 1, 2025. Huston invited frustrated Illinois neighbors to join “low-cost, low-tax Indiana.”

The commission first met in October 2025 with no Illinois members — and it hasn’t publicly met since.

“It’s a stunt. It’s not going to happen,” Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, a Democrat, said of the effort in January 2025. He also called Indiana a low-wage state that doesn’t protect workers or provide health care for people in need.

What happens next

Legally, the path is steep. Creating a new state would take approval from the Illinois General Assembly and Congress, and the last time a state was carved out of another was West Virginia, during the Civil War.

Seven counties already have contacts lined up for 2028 referendum petitions, Illinois Radio Network reported, and Newlin has said organizers have heard from people in every county.

Oregon shows how these efforts can stall. The Greater Idaho movement has won ballot measures in 13 eastern Oregon counties since 2020, but Wallowa County voters scrapped their required border meetings 61% to 39% in May 2026, and state lawmakers have refused to take up the plan, OPB reported.

Does the tax math add up?

Indiana’s case is strongest for working homeowners and weakest for retirees who live on pensions or IRA withdrawals.

Start with property taxes. Illinois and New Jersey are tied for the highest effective property tax rate in the country at 1.88%, according to the Tax Foundation’s 2026 report, which uses 2024 Census data. Indiana’s rate is 0.76%. On a $300,000 home, that’s roughly $5,640 a year in Illinois versus $2,280 in Indiana — about $3,360 in savings.

The gap shrinks in the counties that just voted, where homes cost less and rates often run below the state average (Hamilton County’s is 1.22%). In Coles County, the median homeowner pays $2,474 a year on a home worth $127,400, a 1.72% rate, per the same report.