US economy is growing at fastest pace in nearly 2 years — White House calls it ‘explosive growth’ as spending roars back. Is Trump really winning?

Take, for example, the fact that after months of dismal jobs numbers and recession predictions, a recent White House press release touted the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ revision of second quarter GDP numbers as “explosive growth” for the economy — along with positive reactions from various financial experts.

The revision in question showed a GDP increase of 3.8% in April through June of this year, previously reported as 3.3%. That’s also up from -0.6% GDP growth in quarter one and the fastest pace of growth since the third quarter of 2023.

The GDP growth was driven by a slowing of imports and a greater increase in consumer spending than previously reported — led by transportation, financial and insurance services.

As such, the White House press release crowed that it was all part of “America’s economic resurgence” and “the groundwork for a long-term restoration of American Greatness.”

But is the economy really surging back the way the White House suggests?

What’s really going on with the economy?

Part of the problem in finding a consensus on how the economy is really doing is that the traditional indicators of a healthy economy tell a conflicting story. GDP and consumer spending, for example, are up, while at the same time employment estimates for September show that the U.S. continues to bleed jobs.

ADP data — used in lieu of the usual U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) numbers, which are unavailable during the government shutdown — suggest the private sector lost 32,000 jobs last month (1).

That’s following last month’s dismal BLS report that showed the economy only added 22,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate hit a near-four-year high of 4.3%. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, cut interest rates, but the effects of tariffs and inflation are still taking their toll on American pocketbooks.

One explanation for the mixed economic signals is that the rising consumer spending is only being driven by a small percentage of the highest-income earners.

Research by Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, showed earlier in the year (2) and again recently (3) that the top 10% of earners in the country are responsible for just under 50% of all consumer spending. The data also show that the bottom 80% — anyone making under $175,000 a year — are merely keeping pace with inflation (4). He added that if those high-earners “turn more cautious” about spending, “the economy has a big problem.”

Meanwhile, Harvard University professor and economist Jason Furman cautioned in a social media post that “Investment in information processing equipment & software is 4% of GDP (5). But it was responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year” — adding that, when excluding those categories, GDP only grew 0.1% over the first half of the year.

Add to that a Reuters analysis suggested “momentum appears to be slowing as the effects of tariffs and policy uncertainty start to filter through” (6). EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour told the outlet that despite “an expected moderate real GDP gain in the third quarter … growth is projected to decelerate in the second half of the year.”

If that’s not ominous enough, Yale’s Budget Lab projected that the debt load and rising interest rates brought on by President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill could prove a ticking time bomb for the economy (7). They found that despite providing a short-term boost to GDP, after 2027 “growth slows such that by 2054 the level of GDP is more than 3% smaller than it would have been if the bill were not enacted.”

How to prepare for turbulent economic times ahead

It turns out that, like many experts, the average American also doesn’t have a rosy outlook for the economy.

A Fannie Mae survey from September, for example, found that 67% of consumers feel the American economy is “on the wrong track,” up 3 points from August.

Meanwhile, earlier this month Pew Research Center reported that 74% of U.S. adults described the economy as “only fair or poor,” while just 26% labelled it as “excellent or good” (8).

The Pew survey added that 42% of Americans blamed “rising prices and personal expenses” for their negative view of the economy. As well, 53% said that Trump’s policies have made the economy worse, as opposed to 24% who said they’ve improved economic conditions. And 46% said that they expect the economy to get worse in a year, while only 29% believe it will be better.