Trump wants to 'fill up' US stockpiles with Venezuelan oil after taking a stake in it — but experts warn gas prices won't be coming down anytime soon

“BREAKING NEWS: The United States of America has just entered into an Agreement with the Country of Venezuela on, THE BIGGEST OIL DEAL IN WORLD HISTORY!,” Trump noted. “At my direction, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, working closely with Highly Respected Interim President of Venezuela, Delcy Rodriguez, and, through a partnership with private business, have secured majority U.S. control of more than 65 BILLION BARRELS of proven Oil Reserves in Venezuela, at no cost to the American Taxpayer.”

Trump noted the transaction more than doubles U.S. oil reserves “and will substantially lower Gas Prices for all Americans, long into the future,” he wrote.

On August 30, President Donald Trump made a follow-up post regarding the oil reserve move on Truth Social.

“One of the things I am going to do with the Venezuelan Oil is fill up the Strategic National Reserves which, because of Sleepy Joe Biden, has been virtually emptied,” Trump stated. “The ‘topping out’ process will begin very shortly, and is a Gift from Venezuela to the People of the United States. Thank you! President DONALD J. TRUMP.”

Venezuela may not be up for the job, at least not yet

Energy industry analysts indicate the impact of Venezuelan crude oil on U.S. stockpiles will not be immediate.

“The United States may be able to redirect some Venezuelan oil, but substantially increasing Venezuelan production is a much longer-term proposition,” Yagiz Sullu, founder and lead analyst at Sullu Strategic Advisory LLC, a strategic intelligence and risk analysis firm, told Moneywise. “Venezuela’s oil production has been in decline for many years due to underinvestment, mismanagement and political instability.”

Once oil production has been in steep decline for that long, reversing it requires significant capital, technical expertise, and time. “In other oil-producing countries with production trajectories similar to Venezuela’s, production decline has not been reversed to previous peak levels,” Sullu said.

While Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, holding 303 billion barrels, or about 17% of the world’s reserves, aging infrastructure makes production difficult because much of Venezuela’s reserves consist of extra-heavy crude, which requires additional processing and specialized infrastructure.

“Petróleos de Venezuela S.A., the country’s state-owned oil giant, has estimated that updating pipeline infrastructure alone would require around $8 billion in investment to return production toward late-1990s levels,” Sullu noted. “So there is an important difference between Venezuela possessing enormous reserves and having the capacity to bring those reserves to market rapidly.”

What’s in it for America’s energy consumers?

President Trump’s use of the word “gift” to describe the oil deal should be taken with a large grain of salt, energy analysts say.

*“*It would only be a gift if it were free, which it’s not,” Nic Puckrin, a former Goldman Sachs analyst and founder of Coin Bureau, a digital asset research platform, told Moneywise.

Citing data from Rystad Energy, Puckrin said Venezuela would need at least $30 to $35 billion over the next two to three years just to sustain current output and grow it modestly, and to reach three million barrels per day by 2040 would require $183 billion. “So it’s going to be an expensive gift,” he noted.

While U.S. Gulf-based refineries are well suited to handling Venezuelan oil, that’s not what drives down prices. “What matters is the supply, and Venezuela’s 1.2 million barrels a day is nowhere near enough to move prices at the pump,” Puckrin added. “Consumers might see a marginal drop in prices, but don’t expect it to move the needle anytime soon.”

Expect a waiting game with Venezuelan oil

Energy analysts say it’s important to clarify that 65 billion barrels of reserves does not mean 65 billion barrels of readily available oil.