And yet, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon used the bank’s earnings release on April 13 to highlight an “increasingly complex set of risks” — like geopolitical tensions around the war in Iran, trade uncertainty and elevated asset prices — that persist despite the healthy economic growth.
“While we cannot predict how these risks and uncertainties will ultimately play out, they are significant and they reinforce why we prepare the firm for a wide range of environments,” Dimon said in a recent statement, CNBC reports (2).
Dimon’s Q1 comments line up with the concerns he laid out in his annual shareholder letter on April 6, where he warned that several big risks are still building beneath the surface of the economy (3), comparing them to “tectonic plates“ that keep shifting until they collide.
He pointed to Iran, Ukraine, tariff-related trade uncertainty, big global deficits and high asset prices as the main pressure points. Energy is a big part of the story, too. The conflict in Iran has already pushed oil prices higher, and Dimon warned that if energy costs stay elevated, inflation could start creeping up again. That’s the “skunk at the party,” as he put it.
“And it could happen in 2026 … inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down,” said Dimon. “This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop.”
What JPMorgan’s consumer data shows
On one hand, consumers are still spending. Debit and credit card sales at JPMorgan increased by 9% year over year to $487.6 billion in Q1, and active mobile customers grew by 7%, which suggests households haven’t meaningfully pulled back on spending just yet (4).
But on the flip side, many Americans are still struggling. JPMorgan’s credit card charge-off rate — the chunk of balances the bank writes off as unrecoverable — hit 3.47% in Q1, up from 3.14% in the previous quarter (4). This means more Americans are taking on credit card debt and falling behind on payments that they can’t pay back.
Meanwhile, JPMorgan isn’t the only one seeing this trend. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been tracking rising delinquency rates on household debt for several quarters now — with credit card balances and late payments still way above pre-pandemic levels (5).
JPMorgan also pointed out that high-income households are carrying most (40%) of consumer spending (6), and lower-income folks — who feel energy costs and inflation the hardest — are already starting to pull back.
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What this means for your finances
When the head of America’s biggest bank warns that tough times may be ahead, you’d be wise to pay attention. With that in mind, there are a few things you could do while things are still holding steady.
