May 2, 2026
Gas prices are rising sharply across the country again, and the increase is hitting especially hard in a cluster of Midwestern states that backed Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The surge is closely tied to oil prices climbing to wartime highs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions — particularly, the conflict in Iran.
The average cost of gas in the U.S. is $1.12 higher than it was this time last year, and oil prices are continuing to catapult above $100/barrel (1) — with no signs of significantly slowing or reversing course for the long haul, according to AAA. (2)
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The five states most affected — Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa — have seen the fastest week-over-week increases in gasoline prices nationwide, AAA data suggests. (3) These states form a key political stronghold for Trump, making the economic impact of rising fuel costs especially significant, both financially and politically.
Conflict-induced costs are climbing, leaving people paying more at the pump
Nationally, gas prices have climbed above $4 per gallon, marking a significant increase since the conflict began in late February. Prices are the highest they've been since late July 2022, driven largely by disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.
The conflict has constrained crude oil supply and created a direct and immediate effect for consumers at the pump.
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said that he's "optimistic" that gas prices will drop back to the $3 range this summer, critics continue to warn that, even if the war comes to an end, it'll take time for consumer costs to catch up.
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Regional issues are exacerbating the problem
Analysts point to several compounding factors for high gas prices, beyond high oil prices. Gas stations are attempting to recover profits lost earlier in the conflict, while record-high U.S. petroleum exports are reducing domestic supply, according to the Wall Street Journal. (4)
Gasoline demand increased last week from 9.05 million b/d to 9.10 million, but total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 228.4 million barrels to 222.3 million alongside gasoline production, which decreased to about 9.8 million barrels per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). (5) Crude oil inventories also dropped by 6.2 million barrels from last week.
Meanwhile, the Midwest has been hit harder than most regions.
Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa have seen the biggest increases. And Michigan and Ohio already rank among the nation's top 10 most expensive gasoline markets, averaging $4.58 and $4.46, respectively. (2)
A temporary outage at a major refinery in northwest Indiana has tightened supply even further, contributing to spikes not just in gasoline but also in diesel and jet fuel prices across the Midwest. In Chicago, for example, wholesale diesel prices have reached record highs, even surpassing those on the West Coast.
Economic strain can carry electoral implications
The broader economic implications are significant.
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Rising gas prices increase transportation and logistics costs, which can ripple through the economy in the form of higher prices for goods and services. For households, especially in car-dependent regions like the Midwest, fuel costs represent a direct strain on disposable income.
Trump and his allies have often emphasized energy affordability as a key economic strength. However, the current surge — fueled, in part, by foreign policy decisions and global market disruptions — poses a challenge to that narrative. Previous reporting has shown that prolonged high gas prices can create anxiety within Republican circles. (6)
"Candidly, it does worry me," a Republican operative told The Hill, adding that, because gas prices "are advertised in big, light-up signs on every corner," it's easy for Americans to "tangibly see every single day." "I do think gas prices need to come down in order for Republicans to properly convey our message." (7)
The University of Michigan has reported that consumer sentiment hit an all-time low in April. And Joanne Hsu, the survey's director, told the Wall Street Journal that "many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy." (8)
Ultimately, a global energy shock is translating into localized economic pressure that's seeing sentiment plummet as prices skyrocket. While oil prices continue to fluctuate, the consequences are being felt most acutely in specific regions — especially those that are economically and politically sensitive to rising fuel costs.
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Trading Economics (1); AAA (2),(3); Wall Street Journal (4),(8); Energy Information Administration (5); Brookings Institution (6); The Hill (7)
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AnnaMarie is a weekend editor for Moneywise.
