May 1, 2026
The primary reason that the price of the average home in America keeps ascending (1) to new heights is, of course, a basic supply issue.
Among other factors, the high immigration rates (2) of recent years have contributed to a demand shock (3) that has pushed prices upward, zoning barriers and high construction costs have hindered new development (4), and inflation (5) continues to increase the desire for real estate as an asset class.
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The National Association of Realtors drove home earlier in April how (6) "inventory remains a major constraint on the market," with a historically high disparity between demand and available supply in the sector. The nation's housing shortage is estimated to be in the millions (7), even as sales volumes slide (8) because of a serious lack of affordability and low consumer confidence (9).
Aging in place (10) is gaining in popularity, especially in the present economy, when more residents are opting to invest in renovations (11) on the family home than move and retirement communities are facing a reckoning (12).
But, at some point in the very near future, a "silver tsunami" of seniors' homes will be hitting the market, and will certainly shake things up by virtue of its sheer magnitude.
An influx of generational supply has to improve market conditions, right?
The 65 and older demographic has a higher rate of homeownership than any age group in the US, at nearly 80% (13), compared to the national average of about 65% (14). While this represents a wealth of homes that will change hands in the coming decade or so — more than 31% (15) of all owner-occupied homes — experts argue the market impact won't be so straightforward, even if it is considerable.
"Where these homes are located will play a significant role in determining whether this shift eases affordability or creates new imbalances," the National Association of Home Builders wrote in a post (16) on the subject this week.
States like Florida and Arizona have higher proportions of older homeowners, but how the landscape will be affected in various areas hinges just as crucially on the number of would-be buyers.
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Varied pricing and potential for not just supply, but supply absorption, changes the game
Certain markets are actually at risk of oversupply due to shrinking populations and sky-high price-points, while others could remain constrained despite a glut of new inventory.
Localized uptick in more homes for sale, though — especially affordable homes — would itself spark some shifts, perhaps spurring young people to settle roots in what are presently senior-dominated markets.
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But, the NAHB notes that "even where supply does increase, it may not match what younger buyers want… and in many markets, new construction and zoning reform will still play a far larger role in determining whether housing becomes more accessible."
It is true that older Americans tend to earn less on their homes (17) than younger sellers, in part owing to poorer property maintenance and fewer upgrades over time. And, the consensus among experts also seems to be that these pockets of forthcoming supply aren't where the young working-age population can or will live.
Zillow's economists say (18) that the 12.8 million-strong oversupply of "empty-nest homes" are unfortunately "concentrated in more affordable markets, where housing is already more accessible" and "not in the expensive coastal job centers where young workers are moving and where more homes are most desperately needed."
"Even if we do see a 'silver tsunami,' a look at the map [says] it wouldn't really move the needle in terms of solving our housing affordability crunch," they add.
Like NAHB, the real estate platform has pointed to land-use restrictions (19) as a key driver of current and future housing shortages, silver tsunami or not. Other research adds that the promise of this theoretical wave of homes will likely be more delayed and tempered than hoped (20) because of aging in place trends and inheritance transfers that means many properties won't actually make it to the open market. (21)
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Fortune (1),(11); Migration Policy Institute (2); ScienceDirect (3); Forbes (4); Real City Group (5); National Association of Realtors (6),(8); The Washington Post (7); BBC (9); Empower (10); The Wall Street Journal (12); U.S. Census Bureau (13); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (14); Eye On Housing (15); National Association of Home Builders (16); Center for Retirement Research at Boston College (17); Zillow (18),(19); Cotality (20); Investment News (21)
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Becky Robertson is a senior staff reporter with Moneywise and a lifelong writer. Along with years in the journalism industry at outlets such as blogTO and Quill & Quire, she's participated in writing residencies at the Banff Centre and Writing Workshops Paris. With 33 countries visited, she finds travel to be one of her greatest inspirations.
