Air travel between the US and Canada is set to plunge 70%, and domestic tourism has also slowed — how to plan your trips as Trump's policies hit travel demand

In February, the number of Canadians crossing the land border into the U.S. dropped almost 500,000 compared to the same period last year, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) — reaching levels not seen since the height of the Covid-19 border closures.

“This is like Covid all over again,” said Len Saunders, an immigration lawyer in Blaine, Wash., which borders the Canadian province of British Columbia, in an interview with CBC News. “With the rhetoric coming from Trump — people just don’t want to come down here.”

The number of Canadian residents returning from the U.S. by flights also fell by 13.1% in February, with Air Canada, WestJet and United Airlines announcing cuts to service due to declining demand.

“A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending and 14,000 job losses,” according to the U.S. Travel Association, which noted that Canada is the top source of international visitors to the country, with 20.4 million visits in 2024.

But it’s not just Canada. The Trump administration is also escalating a trade war with the rest of the world, and domestic tourism has also slowed down this year, with Bank of America aggregated card data showing softer lodging, tourism and airline spending. "It could be that the recent drop in consumer confidence is translating into people hesitating to book trips, or considering paring them back. But bad weather and a late Easter this year are also likely playing a part," said the bank.

While this will undoubtedly impact Americans working in the tourism and hospitality industry, it could also have impacts on everyday Americans.

Why Canadians are avoiding U.S. travel

It’s not just tariffs that have shaken Canada-U.S. relations. Taunts about Canada becoming the 51st state, threats of annexation and reports of Canadians and other nationals being detained by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) — like the account of one Vancouver woman detained by ICE for two weeks — is keeping Canadians away.

Then there’s the Canada-U.S. exchange rate. The loonie — which plummeted to its lowest level in more than 20 years when Trump first announced impending tariffs — has since made modest gains. But that could be a good thing for American travelers.

But Barbara Barrett, executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, told CBC News that cross-border traffic declines aren’t due to the exchange rate. Rather, it’s about anti-tariff sentiment.

“We’ve seen the dollar fluctuate up and down before and we haven’t seen this sort of dramatic decline,” she said. “If it was all about the dollar — we’d have a flood of Americans coming over and we’re not seeing that.”

While many Canadians and other foreign nationals are boycotting the U.S., some don’t feel it’s safe to go right now. Several countries — including the U.K., Denmark, Finland, Germany and Canada — have updated their travel advisories for the U.S. regarding immigration requirements and gender identification.

“Since the start of the second Trump administration, there appears to be an uptick in foreign visitors to the U.S. being denied entry, resulting in people being sent back to their original destinations or being held in detention,” according to Wired.

As of April 11, Canadians will also have to register with the U.S. government if they plan to stay in the country for more than 30 days.

What does this mean for American travelers?

While tariffs may not have an immediate impact on domestic travel — like the price of airfare or hotel rooms — ongoing trade wars with multiple countries could eventually take a toll.

The Federal Reserve lowered its outlook for economic growth in 2025 to 1.7%, with inflation projected to creep up from 2.5% to 2.7%. With signs of slowing economic growth and consumer expectations for income, business, and labor market conditions at a 12-year low, Americans may decide to hold off on those vacation plans.

“The longer tariffs last, the more likely we’ll see air travel impacted in the form of higher costs for Boeing and airlines, fewer overall flights, and higher fares,” Scott Keyes, founder of Going, told USA Today.

But if the U.S. does sink into a recession, some travel costs could drop. “That’s because demand for travel typically falls during economic hard times, and with less demand, airlines would be forced to drop prices in order to fill planes,” Keyes said.

Tips for travel planning in uncertain times

Americans traveling domestically may want to consider vacationing in areas impacted by a downturn in Canadian tourism, such as Florida. Prices could drop because of reduced demand; at the same time, you’d be helping to support the tourism industry in those areas.