Trump said imported beef would sell 25% below market. 30 days in, prices are only down 2% and ranchers say they’re paying the price

Trump touted the plan as a way to substantially lower beef prices for American families while also allowing U.S. cattle herds to grow. But according to a recent analysis by Farm Action, the measure has provided little relief to consumers. After 30 days, the organization found the national average price of ground beef declined by less than 2%, falling from $6.92 to $6.79 per pound.

The plan is also hitting already struggling cattle ranchers, as the analysis found that since Trump’s policy took effect, prices for the cows used to produce ground beef have fallen by up to 13.9%.

“The first 30 days raise serious questions about whether this policy is actually delivering on its promises,” Sarah Carden, senior director of research and policy at Farm Action, said on the organization’s website. “Ranchers are seeing steep declines in the prices they receive, and consumers still haven’t seen clear, meaningful relief at the grocery store.”

High beef prices

While the average price of a pound of ground beef hit $6.79 in September, ground beef prices in September 2006, exactly one decade ago, were $2.20, marking an 208% increase in price over the last 10 years.

There are a number of reasons for the skyrocketing price, including environmental conditions like drought, as well as high grain prices, inflation, high interest rates and the shrinking cattle industry.

As of 2026, the U.S. had 86.2 million head of cattle and calves, the smallest total number in 75 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The number of cattle ranches is also on the decline. The 2022 USDA’s Census of Agriculture showed that the U.S. had 732,123 cattle ranches remaining, a 17% drop compared to 2017, when the last five-year study was published. That decline is projected to continue in both 2026 and 2027.

Cattle ranching is not a high-profit industry. The cost of operations is high, but profit margins remain thin. In 2024, 71% of farms and ranches had operating profit margins that were below 10%. According to Farm Action, the shrinking industry has resulted in just four companies controlling roughly 85% of the beef market.

Possible solutions

With declining ranches, environmental concerns and the overall high cost of operations, industry exports warn that consumer prices will remain high unless investments are made to rebuild the domestic industry.

Farm Action warned of this reality in June, roughly two months before Trump announced his plans to increase imports. The organization released a seven-point report outlining recommendations for improving domestic cattle ranching and specifically discouraged increasing imports, arguing it will make the U.S. more vulnerable to foreign supply disruptions and weaken domestic incentives to rebuild herds.

Instead, Farm Action is calling on the government to invest in the domestic industry by increasing federal procurement, helping ranchers with rebuilding their herds and better protecting farm and grazing land.

“We can’t rebuild America’s cattle herd by undermining the producers who raise our cattle,” Carden said on Farm Action’s website. “If the administration wants to make beef more affordable, it needs to address the lack of competition in the beef supply chain and invest in a stronger domestic cattle industry — not put the burden on American ranchers.”