By comparison, overall grocery prices have risen 33% since 2019. Had ground coffee simply kept pace, Chart News calculated that an average bag would cost roughly $5.50 today.
Brewing at home is still considerably cheaper than picking up a coffee on the go, but even that daily ritual has become more expensive. Chart News estimates the cost of a home-brewed cup has climbed from around 10 cents in 2019 to about 23 cents today, more than doubling in seven years.
While coffee has been hit by many of the same pressures that sent grocery bills soaring, including pandemic-era supply-chain disruptions, higher labor and transportation costs and broader inflation, bad weather in Brazil has made matters worse.
The Brazil factor
Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, the variety that dominates the U.S. market. Its growers have been hit by repeated bouts of extreme weather since 2021.
Severe frost affected an estimated 8-10% of Brazil’s arabica-growing area in 2021, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). For the 2021-22 harvest, arabica production fell nearly 27% to 36.4 million 60-kilogram bags, down from 49.7 million a year earlier, USDA data showed.
More trouble followed in 2024, when extreme heat and prolonged drought hit Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing state. Reuters, citing agronomists at the local coffee research institute Fundacao Procafe, reported that severe drought damaged coffee trees and threatened the 2025 crop even after rains returned.
With Brazil accounting for roughly 35% of global coffee production, according to USDA data, weaker harvests left less coffee available on the global market and pushed up raw coffee prices. Those higher costs eventually showed up on grocery store shelves and at coffee shops across the United States.
Brazil hasn’t been the only major coffee-producing country struggling with adverse weather. Vietnam, the world’s second-largest producer and a major source of the robusta variety of beans, has also endured high temperatures and drought. USDA reported that the country’s rainy season arrived late in 2024, while temperatures were above average in many areas.
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Record demand meets a trade war
Increasing global climate disruptions have come as the world’s appetite for coffee continues to grow. Global consumption is forecast to reach a record 179.7 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2025-26 marketing year, according to USDA. Much of that growth has come from the United States and the European Union.
