‘Brace yourselves’ — what tanking jet fuel supplies could mean for your vacation as airlines are forced to slash flights

If you’re planning on flying any time soon, keep fluctuating flight schedules — and these tips for managing them — in mind.

How the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran is impacting oil prices—and airlines

The price of jet fuel in the U.S. has climbed from $2.50 a gallon on February 27 to $4.88 a gallon by April 2 (1).

Moreover, the Argus US jet fuel index has averaged $2.97/USG in 2026, which is up by 74¢/USG (or 33%) compared to last year (2). The war has elevated the average spot price by $2.20/USG to around $4.70/bl.

For airlines, fuel is one of the largest operating costs. When prices surge and supply becomes uncertain, the response tends to be swift: raise ticket prices, cut flights and protect margins. And that’s exactly what travelers are seeing now.

“Travel has gotten a lot more expensive in Asia, with many airlines adding fuel surcharges or downright canceling flights,” senior oil market analyst for Sparta Commodities, June Goh, shared on X in early March (3). “Europe is facing imminent jet fuel supply shortages. Brace yourselves.”

Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), told reporters at the IATA World Data Symposium in Singapore that it will likely take months for jet fuel prices and supply to restabilize (4).

"If [the Strait of Hormuz] were to reopen and remain open, I think it will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East, which is a critical part of the global supply of refined products — and not just jet fuel, for other products, as well," Walse said.

Airlines are reducing routes in response to rising costs

Ryanair, which is Europe's largest airline, is reportedly considering reducing routes as a result of potentially limited jet fuel supply going forward.

“We don’t expect any near-term fuel shortages, but the situation is fluid,” a Ryanair spokesperson shared with Moneywise. “At present, our fuel suppliers can guarantee supply to mid-end May. If the Iran war finishes soon then supply will not be disrupted. If the closure of the Hormuz Straits continues into May or June then we cannot rule out risks to fuel supplies at some airports in Europe.”

With jet oil prices doubling during March, the spokesperson said Ryanair expects all airlines to pass on elevated costs in the form of increased air fares later this summer.

A spokesperson for Scandinavian Airlines told The Wall Street Journal in March that it would cut about 1,000 flights due to the surge in jet fuel costs (5). Around the same time, a spokesperson for Lufthansa told Bloomberg that the airline has put teams in place to develop crisis response plans, which include grounding up to 40 aircrafts (6). Neither Scandinavian Airlines nor Lufthansa immediately responded to Moneywise’s request for comment.

A growing number of Asian airlines — many of which operate directly within and around the Middle East — are also cutting costs by cutting flights, including Vietnam Airlines, Vietjet Air and Bamboo Airways.

AirAsia X founder Tony Fernandes told the Qatar Tribune that higher prices are simply “unavoidable” amid the ongoing conflict, and the airline is cutting capacity on routes where it doesn’t “believe [it] can cover the cost of the fuel (6).”

Back on home soil, United Airlines was among the first to make a public statement regarding the war and its impact on fuel costs and flights.

Chief Executive Scott Kirby said in a staff memo, which was shared with Moneywise, that United is preparing for rising oil prices to inflate the airline’s annual fuel bill by about $11 billion — more than twice the profit it earned in its “best year ​ever (7).” For that reason, the airline wants to “be smart and nimbly manage [its] schedule.”

“In the short term, that means tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable in the face of high oil prices,” Kirby wrote. “Our current plan is to restore the full schedule this fall … But there's no point in burning cash in the near term on flying that just can't absorb these fuel costs.”

Delta has also said it would cut capacity by around 3.5 percentage points.

"We are taking actions to protect our margins and cash flow,” Chief Executive Ed Bastian said in the airline’s first-quarter 2026 earnings report (8). “This includes meaningfully reducing capacity growth, with a downward bias until the fuel environment improves, and moving quickly to recapture higher fuel costs."

How to plan your vacation amidst the conflict and cancellations

In December (before the conflict kicked off), a report from the International Air Transport Association predicted there will be strong travel demand in 2026, with 5.2 billion people expected to travel by air (9). That marks a 4.4% increase from last year’s record-breaking passenger counts. But the war’s impact on fuel — and, as such, flights — means less options and more fees for travelers.

Even when flights aren’t being outright canceled, they’re becoming increasingly more expensive to operate (and take). Flights that are lifting off are fuller, pushing prices higher and diminishing last-minute deals. The cost is being passed on to travelers in the form of fare bumps, baggage fees and pared-back perks.

It’s also becoming increasingly difficult to reach different destinations due to restricted airspace. Longer routes that avoid restricted airspace burn more fuel, further compounding costs.

A spokesperson at Ryanair told Moneywise that the airline urges all passengers to book their flights as soon as possible to be “insulated from inevitable airfare and accommodation cost increases.”

Travelers should also:

1. Enable price alerts. Tools like Google Flights and Hopper track fares to help you monitor changes and jump on potential dips.
2. Be wary of extra fees. While one flight might appear cheaper, increased baggage fees can it pricier than another flight with a slightly higher fare. What looks like a cheap ticket upfront might still give you stickershock by the time you checkout.
3. Book directly with airlines. If complications do arise, it’s generally easier to navigate them when you’ve booked directly with an airline instead of a third-party site with stipulations of its own.
4. Pay with points where possible. Jordan Rozum, Director of Loyalty at point.me, tells Moneywise that point.me data shows two prices right now: the rising cash fare and the awards flights booked with points.

“The pricing gap between cash and rewards points exists right now because airlines offer reward seats through their frequent flyer programs that are priced differently than cash tickets,” Rozum noted. “Cash ticket prices are much more volatile, while reward seats use fixed charts that are less subject to change. It typically takes airlines much longer to adjust reward seat pricing than it does for them to adjust cash pricing.”