China just imported over 1,100 tonnes of gold in 8 months — a record $158.8B haul that already tops all of 2025. Should you be buying too?

Wall Street has taken full notice of China’s aggressive gold-import strategy, with Goldman Sachs estimating prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of the year.

“Our fair-value forecast of $4,900/ounce by end-2026 assumes continued strong central bank demand — with average purchases of 50 tonnes/month in 2026 and 40 tonnes/month in 2027 — alongside a recovery in private investor ETF demand as the Fed remains on hold in 2026,” wrote Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven in a recent market study.

Goldman analysts also issue a few caveats on gold right now, noting Federal Reserve interest rate hikes could curb growth, even though gold should finish the year in plus territory.

“If the Fed were to hike, demand for gold as a macro policy hedge might (partially) unwind as market concerns about DM central bank independence ease,” the report stated. “Combined with rate-sensitive ETF holders net selling into higher rates, gold prices could then reach $4,440/oz by end-2026 — materially below our base-case of $4,900, but slightly above today’s levels, as continued central bank buying eventually more than offsets.”

Should Main Street investors be buying gold?

Economic factors and gold’s rising value should attract investors’ attention, although large portfolio shifts into gold haven’t happened yet — at least not on a large scale.

“Gold’s share in private portfolios remains low, and recent geopolitical developments — including Iran and broader tensions — may accelerate diversification beyond central banks to private investors, including by weighing on perceptions of Western fiscal sustainability,” the Goldman research note stated.

Precious metals experts agree, noting that ordinary American investors should take their cue from China and boost gold in their portfolios.

“Americans should consider increasing their gold holdings,” Brett Elliott, director of marketing at American Precious Metals Exchange, told Moneywise. “There’s a greater understanding now that currency debasement is unavoidable, and one reaction to that is a higher gold price.”

Other gold mavens say central banks and individual gold buyers act for different reasons, but the message is similar.

“A central bank buys gold to strengthen reserve diversification, reduce exposure to a single sovereign currency, and to prepare for uncertainty in the global financial system,” Joshua D. Glawson, content manager and analyst at Money Metals Exchange, told Moneywise.

An individual investor usually takes on gold to diversify savings and reduce dependence on assets tied to government debt, financial institutions, and the purchasing power of fiat currency.

“In both cases, gold acts as a deliberate insurance policy for planned devaluation of the US dollar, or more specifically the Federal Reserve Note,” Glawson added.

While Americans shouldn’t treat China’s buying as an order to chase gold, it’s a good idea to pay attention when one of the world’s largest gold markets is steadily accumulating an asset that cannot be printed or created out of nothing.

“Gold, like silver or platinum, can be part of a broader strategy to preserve purchasing power and reduce counterparty risk,” Glawson stated.

Here’s how much gold you should own

For Americans who decide gold belongs in their portfolio, how much is enough?

Experts say that, for a typical American retirement or investment portfolio, a modest allocation of around 5% may be enough to add diversification without making gold the entire strategy.

“The appropriate amount depends on an investor’s exposure to stocks, bonds, government debt, dollars, and other financial assets,” Glawson said. “Some investors may even take a more aggressive approach and encourage a 60/20/10 approach, with 10% dedicated to gold and silver, with gold being the main focus.”

Glawson believes physical bullion is the clearest choice for investors who want to hold gold directly and reduce counterparty risk.

“Gold ETFs are convenient for investors who want exposure to the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold,” he said. “A combination of physical bullion and gold ETFs can offer both direct ownership and convenience, while mining stocks should be treated as a higher-risk investment.”

Even as gold ascends, look for warning signs

Investors may wonder what happens if China’s gold-buying thesis breaks down, and should watch for red flags.