U.S. diesel prices have risen above $6.50 nationally, with some areas reporting $7 a gallon and $1,000 for a tractor fill-up. That’s up $2.90 from 2024. Now, higher fuel costs threaten to wipe out profit margins on crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat.
The immediate future isn’t looking bright, either. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that national farming-related fuel and oil costs will rise by 28.8% this year. That’s driving down farm profits, with the USDA estimating that net farm income is pegged to fall 2.6% in nominal terms and 5.5% after inflation in 2026.
“This is a national farm crisis for farmers,” John Boyd, Jr., a fourth-generation Virginia farmer and founder of the National Black Farmers Association, told NPR’s Morning Edition. “I’m having to come up with money that’s really not in the budget.”
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Boyd noted it cost him around $1,000 the last time he fueled his combines and other heavy farm equipment with diesel, and that cost is taking a toll on his farm’s bottom line.
“I’m paying $7 a gallon for diesel fuel, almost double what I was paying last year at this time,” he told NPR. “America’s farmers are tough. But we’re not going to make it like this…”
Boyd also said his income has been “marginalized” from the Trump administration’s tariff policy and that the Iran war has contributed to agricultural production costs. “All of these things have created a farm crisis here in America for America’s farmers,” he said. “We rely on diesel fuel to fill up our combines for picking corn. And this is harvest time, which is a critical time for farmers.”
Higher fuel costs are burdening already cash-strapped farmers
Agricultural experts say diesel fuel has become a very meaningful part of farmers’ margin equation.
“Farmers have already invested in seed, fertilizer, labor and land by harvest, so in most cases they still have to harvest even if diesel becomes extremely expensive,” Yang Fang, the CEO and Founder of Beagle Technology, a physical AI and robotics company mechanizing farming equipment, told Moneywise. “The bigger issue is that a crop that looked profitable when it was planted can become much less profitable by the time it is harvested.”
Rising fuel costs also come at an inopportune time for America’s farmers, many of whom are in the midst of harvest season.
“Unfortunately, fuel is not an optional expense during the harvest season. If the crop is ready, the machines have to run,” Fang noted. Some growers may take out operating loans or choose not to harvest their crop, since the harvesting process can cost even more than not harvesting. “It’s very sad and unfortunate to see this, but there are many factors that growers can’t control,” Fang said.
Other agricultural analysts say farmers have several options when fuel prices are skyrocketing, but not all of them are realistic to pursue.
“Buying fuel in bulk when prices are lower can help, as farms can bypass pump markups and save money,” Yagiz Sullu, PhD and founder at Sullu Strategic Advisory LLC, a political risk and geopolitical analyst, told Moneywise. “For family farms, the most practical options are usually bulk purchasing, improving fuel efficiency and reducing non-priority trips across fields.”
Newer, more efficient equipment can also lower fuel use, but replacing a tractor is a major investment that some may not be able to afford. “The main problem with the diesel price spike is that farmers can become more efficient over time, but there is only so much they can do in the middle of a harvest,” Sullu said.
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Tighter farm budgets could mean higher consumer prices
Some of the current diesel shock could eventually reach consumers.
For instance, Boyd told NPR that the diesel fuel cost issue leaves little or no room for him to cover higher fuel costs. “Corn is $5 a bushel, so there isn’t any room to make up or add anything to it, as a lot of people would think,” he said. “That’s the price that I’m selling corn for. And then I have to come up with the money to put this diesel fuel in there, right at $1,000 every time I fill up.”
That means Boyd and other farmers have little wiggle room on expenses and profits.
“If farmers, truckers, processors and retailers can absorb some of the costs, not all of them will be passed on to consumers immediately,” Sullu said. “However, if diesel prices remain high, consumers will eventually pay higher prices for goods.”
Additionally, agricultural goods such as fruits and vegetables travel long distances to reach consumers, and grains require planting, harvesting and transportation, so consumers will feel all the costs involved in getting them to market. “I expect a gradual increase rather than an immediate jump at the grocery store,” Sullu added. “The longer diesel stays expensive, the more difficult it becomes for businesses to absorb those costs.”
Long-term woes may rise if fuel prices don’t come down
If diesel prices remain high into 2027, farmers will have to make tougher decisions about what to plant and how much.
“Some may reduce acreage, switch crops or delay equipment purchases to protect cash,” Fang said. “For farmers already operating on thin margins, another year of high fuel, labor and financing costs could also push more growers to leave the industry, ultimately putting more pressure on food prices and rural economics.”
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A former Wall Street bond trader, Brian O'Connell is the author of two best-selling books: “The 401k Millionaire” and “CNBC’s Creating Wealth.” His work is featured on national finance and business platforms like TheStreet.com, CBS News, CNN, The Wall Street Journal and Forbes.
