JPMorgan’s shift in tone is remarkable given the longstanding skepticism toward digital assets from its CEO Jamie Dimon. In 2017, he derided Bitcoin as a “fraud” heading toward a crash. He has kept up a barrage of criticism against Bitcoin, dismissing it as “a pet rock” and “worthless” over the years. Just last year, JPMorgan began allowing its clients to buy Bitcoin as banks developed a stronger interest in crypto.
“I don’t think you should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke,” Dimon said during JPMorgan’s annual investor day in May 2025. “I defend your right to buy bitcoin.”
However, the report offered a significant caveat for its projection: It still doesn’t recommend Bitcoin as something that investors should purchase for a diversified portfolio.
Diving into JPMorgan’s Bitcoin forecast
Bitcoin is a digital asset designed to be sent electronically between users anywhere in the world without a bank or government facilitating the transfer. Therefore, its value is not determined by a central government. It only stems from what an investor is prepared to pay. Bitcoin’s volatility made JPMorgan analysts cautious about incorporating it in investment portfolios.
“At the moment, we do not make a case for bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” JPMorgan analysts Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo wrote in the analysis. “We see bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”
At its peak in October 2025, Bitcoin reached just over $126,000 in value. However, the digital token has swung wildly in value and shed a significant share of its worth since. Huge gains and sudden losses have dictated Bitcoin’s trajectory since it was first launched in 2009. As of Oct. 23, it was trading at roughly $81,500 — down about 35% from its record high.
JPMorgan analysts observed that Bitcoin is “the anchor” of a crypto asset class now surpassing $2.5 trillion in value — about the size of the Swiss stock market and the burgeoning private capital market in the U.S., they wrote.
“BTC mostly trades like a high beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as ‘digital gold,’” the report said.
‘Lacks a clear role as a diversifier’
Bitcoin’s volatility is reflected in JPMorgan’s forecast projections. It laid out a base case for roughly 10% returns over the next decade. The firm’s “bear case” showed it could plunge about 10% in the same time frame. If Bitcoin had an extraordinary run, the firm’s “bull case” said it could grow 17% in the next 10 years. Still, its status as a purely speculative investment led JPMorgan’s asset management arm to consult against acquiring it.
It was also cautious about projecting the trajectory of an asset that isn’t anchored by traditional cash flow.
“BTC currently lacks a clear role as a diversifier in balanced portfolios due to unstable correlations to other asset classes,” JPMorgan analysts wrote. “Uncertain correlations, combined with high volatility, also limit its utility in strategic asset allocation today, in our view.”
Joseph Zeballos-Roig is a policy and politics journalist based in Washington D.C with a focus on economics. He is experienced in connecting the significance of events in the capital to the lives of everyday Americans whether its taxes, tariffs, interest rates or federal programs.
