Tax experts say you should consider avoiding a refund next year — it’s ‘a lot easier to owe the IRS than to have them owe you’

“Don’t confuse a bigger refund with paying less tax,” Tram Le, CPA and founder of Le CPA Group in Chicago, told Moneywise. “Often, a bigger refund simply means you paid too much in taxes during the year.”

She said a better strategy is to figure out your exact tax liability and to either withhold enough from your paycheck to cover it, or make estimated quarterly payments if you are self-employed or earn a substantial amount of income from dividends and interest.

Experts argue that you should try to aim for a tax refund of as close to zero as possible. That way, that money you keep in your bank account can be used to make ends meet throughout the year, especially now in a high-inflationary environment. If it’s in a high-yield savings or investment account, it also has a chance to grow.

But some are taking it a step further. Laura Saunders, a longtime tax writer, wrote in The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) that she is actually looking to owe the IRS next year. And she’s not alone. Here’s why.

Taxpayers are worried about IRS staffing cuts

Saunders wrote that she plans to owe taxes for the first time next Tax Day on April 15. This recent tax filing season, the IRS issued refunds to more than 90 million people, averaging $3,275.

However, Saunders is worried about a “snafu or delay that takes precious time to resolve.” That’s because, between January 2025 and January 2026, the agency lost 31,000 people — or nearly one-third of its staff — due to budget cuts and staff reductions resulting from Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative, according to the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration. The IRS also answered a smaller percentage of phone calls received and had longer wait times, the Government Accountability Office found.

In a June report, National Taxpayer Advocate Erin Collins further stated that, while the vast majority of taxpayers successfully filed their returns and received their refunds without significant delay, “taxpayers who required assistance from the IRS often struggled to get it.”

One example of this is Richard Weiss, a retired finance professional, who told WSJ he has yet to receive his five-figure refund for a return he filed in February. Despite the IRS providing him with a phone number to call, he said he hasn’t had any luck getting through.

“I call it day after day after day, and I can’t get through,” he shared. Like Saunders, Weiss is also considering avoiding refunds in the future.

Meanwhile, Eric Korbitz, a CPA in Milwaukee, told WSJ that five of his clients have had delayed refunds for e-filed returns, and four are still in limbo about when they can expect to receive it. He said he’ll be working with clients on the same strategy.

“It’s often a lot easier to owe the IRS than to have them owe you,” he said.

What to know if you plan to owe the IRS

It should come as no surprise that there is some math involved with choosing to purposely owe the IRS. Doing it correctly all but guarantees you will avoid penalties. But be warned that this can be complicated to navigate.

In layman’s terms, taxpayers who expect to owe more than $1,000 to the IRS typically must pay 90% of their bill well in advance of the April 15 deadline via estimated tax payments paid every few months directly to the IRS. Self-employed individuals are accustomed to making estimated tax payments — typically due on April 15, June 15, Sept. 15, and Jan 15 the following year.