Aug 29, 2025
When President Trump announced steep new tariffs on Brazilian imports, few Americans likely expected their morning coffee to be caught in the crossfire.
But with Brazil supplying about one-third of U.S. coffee imports, a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports could have immediate consequences for both coffee importers and exporters.
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Coffee roasters and shops in the U.S. already operate on slim profit margins, and higher costs can quickly cascade down the supply chain. American importers now face inflated prices for coffee, leaving cafes across the country to decide whether to absorb the losses or pass the costs on to consumers.
Why importers and exporters are getting hit hard
Unlike some imported goods, coffee has no real domestic substitute. More than 99% of America's coffee supply is imported, with Hawaii and Puerto Rico representing some of the few locations where the U.S. grows its own coffee beans. This means American coffee importers cannot simply “buy local.”
“The U.S. can’t grow coffee at scale, so tariffs won’t bring production back home,” Timen Swijtink, founder of Lacàph Coffees in Vietnam, told The Guardian. “With the tiny margins in our industry, any tariff cost goes straight to the American consumer.”
On the export side, Brazil and other coffee-producing nations suddenly face declining demand from the U.S., their largest buyer, forcing them to explore alternative markets like China. But redirecting global supply chains takes time and, in the short term, both sides lose.
For independent cafes in the U.S., these tariffs hit on top of other existing pressures: rising rent costs, labor costs and climate-driven supply shocks. Coffee prices globally have already surged due to droughts and crop failures, with U.S. coffee prices rising 14.5% year-over-year as of July 2025.
If tariffs push coffee prices even higher, some cafes in the U.S. may face declining customer traffic. This could lead to several shops shutting down and closures across many small businesses could have real economic consequences, which may include job losses and a reduction in foot traffic in commercial districts.
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Can switching to at-home brewing help?
Even for those who brew at home, the math doesn’t work out as neatly as it once did.
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While skipping a store-bought $5 latte each weekday adds up to saving about $1,300 a year, the savings gap has narrowed. That’s because the packaged coffee that’s sold at grocery stores is also getting more expensive, as packaged coffee grounds are not immune to tariffs and also rely heavily on imports.
In fact, with the cost of importing coffee having increased by 65% since 2021, American consumers are now paying 20% more for ground coffee than they were two years ago in 2023. This means you may still be paying noticeably more for coffee at the grocery store.
But the bigger question is whether Americans are willing to sacrifice the social and lifestyle value of grabbing a coffee at their local cafe.
For many, a cafe visit isn’t just about caffeine, it’s about community, routine and a small daily luxury. If that's a habit you'd like to keep alive, in a tariff-fueled economy where every dollar is stretched, even something as simple as a cup of coffee can force some tough decisions.
With this in mind, American coffee drinkers may need to make some sacrifices elsewhere in their budget, which could include eating out less, skipping a subscription service or treating coffee as a weekend indulgence rather than a weekday staple.
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With a writing and editing career spanning over 15 years, Emma creates and refines content across a broad spectrum of industries, including personal finance, lifestyle, travel, health & wellness, real estate, beauty & fitness and B2B/SaaS/tech.
