Trump’s tariffs threaten the country’s coffee habit as costs get passed ‘straight to the American consumer’ — can you afford to stay caffeinated?

Coffee roasters and shops in the U.S. already operate on slim profit margins, and higher costs can quickly cascade down the supply chain. American importers now face inflated prices for coffee, leaving cafes across the country to decide whether to absorb the losses or pass the costs on to consumers.

Why importers and exporters are getting hit hard

Unlike some imported goods, coffee has no real domestic substitute. More than 99% of America's coffee supply is imported, with Hawaii and Puerto Rico representing some of the few locations where the U.S. grows its own coffee beans. This means American coffee importers cannot simply “buy local.”

“The U.S. can’t grow coffee at scale, so tariffs won’t bring production back home,” Timen Swijtink, founder of Lacàph Coffees in Vietnam, told The Guardian. “With the tiny margins in our industry, any tariff cost goes straight to the American consumer.”

On the export side, Brazil and other coffee-producing nations suddenly face declining demand from the U.S., their largest buyer, forcing them to explore alternative markets like China. But redirecting global supply chains takes time and, in the short term, both sides lose.

For independent cafes in the U.S., these tariffs hit on top of other existing pressures: rising rent costs, labor costs and climate-driven supply shocks. Coffee prices globally have already surged due to droughts and crop failures, with U.S. coffee prices rising 14.5% year-over-year as of July 2025.

If tariffs push coffee prices even higher, some cafes in the U.S. may face declining customer traffic. This could lead to several shops shutting down and closures across many small businesses could have real economic consequences, which may include job losses and a reduction in foot traffic in commercial districts.

Can switching to at-home brewing help?

Even for those who brew at home, the math doesn’t work out as neatly as it once did.