'We've had enough of this crap': Montana cattleman who voted for Trump says he's voting blue in midterm elections as beef imports hit ranchers hard

With the war in Iran sending gas and fertilizer prices through the roof, not to mention the president’s ongoing trade wars with countries like Canada, the cost of living — coupled with the economy — are top of mind as Americans prepare to vote on November 3.

Ranchers like Congdon, however, are particularly angered with Trump’s decision to temporarily increase beef imports in order to lower prices at the grocery store. The measure would allow up to 300,000 metric tons of additional lean beef imports at lower tariff rates for 90 days, and the imports would also be sold at 25% below market price.

When Trump announced this plan on Aug. 26, he touted it as a way to substantially lower beef prices for American families while also allowing U.S. cattle herds to grow. But a new analysis shows beef prices have barely dropped, while American ranchers are getting paid less.

According to a recent analysis by Farm Action, the national average price of ground beef declined by less than 2%, falling from $6.92 to $6.79 per pound within the first 30 days of Trump’s increased beef imports.

But ranchers like Congdon are more concerned about the effect that increased beef imports have had on their operations, as Farm Action’s analysis also found that prices for the cows used to produce ground beef have fallen by up to 13.9%.

“The first 30 days raise serious questions about whether this policy is actually delivering on its promises,” Sarah Carden, senior director of research and policy at Farm Action, said on the organization’s website. “Ranchers are seeing steep declines in the prices they receive, and consumers still haven’t seen clear, meaningful relief at the grocery store.”

America’s shrinking cattle industry

While the average price of a pound of ground beef hit $6.79 in September, prices in September 2006 were at $2.20, marking a 208% increase over the last 10 years.

There are a number of reasons for the skyrocketing price of ground beef, including environmental conditions like drought, as well as high grain prices, inflation, high interest rates and the shrinking cattle industry.

As of 2026, the U.S. had 86.2 million head of cattle and calves, the lowest total number in 75 years, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). The number of cattle ranches is also on the decline. The 2022 USDA’s Census of Agriculture showed that the U.S. had 732,123 cattle ranches remaining, a 17% drop compared to 2017, when the last five-year study was published. That decline is projected to continue in both 2026 and 2027.

Cattle ranching is not a high-profit industry. The cost of operations is high, but profit margins remain thin. In 2024, 71% of farms and ranches had operating profit margins that were below 10%. According to Farm Action, the shrinking industry has resulted in just four companies controlling roughly 85% of the American beef market.

Trump’s pitch to ranchers and farmers

Ahead of the midterm elections, Trump and Vice President JD Vance have been campaigning hard in red states. During a recent stop in Bozeman, Montana, Trump reminded locals that he and the Republican Party eliminated estate taxes for family farms in 2025, while also suggesting that Chinese President Xi Jinping had promised to double up on the country’s purchases from American farmers, USA Today reports.

“We’re never going to let our farmers get hurt,” Trump said during his rally in Bozeman.

Meanwhile, the White House has announced several new agricultural policies in recent weeks, including an $8 billion program from the Department of Agriculture that offers one-time payments during this fall’s harvest that aim to offset the high cost of diesel, which farms heavily rely on to run their machinery. The president also signed an executive order that authorizes “highway use of tax-free dyed diesel and deferring the federal diesel excise tax through the end of the year.”