America's luckiest lottery states include one underdog outperforming New York and California. But don’t pack your bags just yet

Vegas Insider studied Powerball and Mega Millions winners going back more than 30 years, looking at the number of jackpot wins in each state as well as wins per million residents.

After crunching the numbers, Michigan topped the list of luckiest lottery locales, thanks to what Vegas Insider called “the most balanced high-performing state” based on both total jackpot wins (46) and wins per million residents (98.4).

New York and California ranked third and fourth overall — not a huge surprise given that, like Michigan, their populations generate more lottery ticket sales than smaller states.

But the real shocker came in at the No. 2 spot, where a dark horse beat out both the Empire State and the Golden State despite having a population of just 8.8 million — only slightly larger than New York City’s.

Does your zip code determine your jackpot chances?

Virginia claimed second place on the Vegas Insider list with 41 jackpots while “leading the nation in per-capita performance, reaching 100 wins per million residents.”

The outlet added that Virginia’s numbers showed that “while it’s smaller than states like New York or California, it consistently punches above its weight.”

Virginia wasn’t the only smaller state to outperform. Maryland, with its 6.2 million residents, came in fifth. Vegas Insider said its 76 winners per million residents make it “one of the most reliable states overall.”

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The Vegas Insider research team didn’t respond to Moneywise’s request for comment. But one member of the team, Amy Harris, told Washington State’s The News Tribune that “in real gaming, the odds are fixed,” while with the lottery, “where you play can change the outcome.”

Other experts disagree.

“Where you buy a ticket has no impact on your chances of winning the jackpot,” the Multi-State Lottery Association (MSLA), a non-profit coalition of state lotteries, told Moneywise. “We typically see more prize winners in urban areas than in rural areas simply because more tickets are sold there.”

Philip J. Cook, professor emeritus at Duke University’s Sanford School of Public Policy and co-author of the book Selling Hope: State Lotteries in America, also questioned the findings.

“Some readers may conclude that they are more likely to win if they buy their next ticket in Michigan or Virginia. That would be quite a scandal,” he told Moneywise.

Cook said any analysis like this needs to account for “winning counts by state by some obvious differences.”

Those differences include the fact that not every state participated in Powerball from the start — or even at all — and that the game’s format has changed over time.

“So the likelihood of a winning ticket was higher in the early years than subsequently, which will affect the historical count of winners,” he said.

He also warned that adjusting for population alone isn’t enough because the number of tickets sold per capita also matters.

“So it appears to me,” Cook added, “that there’s a lot more work to be done before concluding that any one ticket sold in Michigan has a better chance than one sold anywhere else.”

Powerball’s own records tell a different story. Since its inception in 1992, Indiana has produced the most jackpot winners with 40, while Michigan has had six and Virginia has had two.

Mega Millions data paints a similar picture. Since that game began in 1996, New York, California and New Jersey clocked the most jackpot winners, easily outpacing Michigan and Virginia.

The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are about 1 in 292 million. For the Mega Millions, they’re about 1 in 290 million.