He and his wife moved back to San Francisco in June after two years away for graduate school. He has a new job and good money coming in, but still can’t find a two-bedroom he can afford. He told NPR he couldn’t have timed the move worse.
Russell isn’t alone. In the first six months of 2026, 144 homes in San Francisco sold for at least $1 million over asking price. In the same stretch of 2025, only eight did. These are expensive houses to begin with — the ones that sold that far over ask listed for an average of $3.8 million. A small number of very rich buyers are chasing a supply that barely exists, and it isn’t only happening in California.
Why there’s almost nothing at the top to buy
Start with supply: At the end of June, the entire city had 590 single-family homes and condos listed for sale. Only a fraction of those are large family homes, so buyers who want one end up bidding on the same few properties.
The best homes also almost never come up. Their owners bought long ago, they’re comfortable, and their property tax bills still reflect what they paid back then, so there’s no financial reason to sell, Compass luxury residential agent Ronda Priestner told the New Fillmore.
Redfin found the same thing nationally — owners of expensive homes have a tax incentive not to sell, and many hold old mortgages at rates they can’t get again. Priestner says the result in San Francisco is that these homes reach the market once in a generation.
“Broadway is one of the few streets in America where scarcity is permanent,” she said, referring to the downtown street in San Francisco.
San Francisco is the center of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and two companies based there are heading for the stock market: OpenAI filed confidentially in June, a week after Anthropic. Some employees are turning their shares into cash through private sales and loans, and buying before the IPO. Compass wrote in its August market report that “The AI boom has spiked demand, especially for family-ready homes in specific neighborhoods.”
What the bidding looks like from inside
Paul Kitchen, a Compass agent, told NPR that one client’s bid turned out to be one of 50 on a single listing. Money doesn’t solve it either: at the very top of the market, even buyers offering $25 million in cash are still losing.
In August, a 12-acre estate in Hillsborough sold for $70 million, double the town’s record of $35 million set in 2022. Listing agent Jenn Gilson wouldn’t name the buyer, but said the person works in AI. “I definitely think it’s a connection in the AI world,” she said.
