Mar 26, 2026
You might be part of a cohort that grew up being told (and believing) that college is the surest way to a stable, high-paying career. You might even have a large student debt to show for the effort.
But, as recent Gallup data (1) reveals, in a challenging job market, it’s workers without degrees who feel most optimistic about their job prospects, compared to their more pessimistic college-educated counterparts.
Confidence in the job market collapses to new low
Results from Gallup’s Q4 2025 survey of U.S. workers reveals that just 28% believe now is a good time to find a quality job. That’s down a sharp 42% from mid-2022, when 70% of workers felt optimistic about their job prospects.
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At the time of the most recent 2025 poll, more than half of U.S. workers were actively looking for a new job or monitoring for opportunities. And of those actively seeking new employment, nearly half of all respondents report it being a negative experience.
Part of the reason is lack of success: More than half of those who applied for at least one job in the last 30 days did not receive a single callback for an interview.
Still, not everyone shared the poor outlook equally. Those without degrees felt more optimistic about finding a job in the current market.
Mike Rowe, the former host of the popular series for Discovery Channel called Dirty Jobs, says the growing interest in trades over college and traditional institutions is becoming impossible to ignore. “We’ve been telling kids for 15 years to learn to code. Well, AI is coming for the coders,” he said (2). “It’s not coming for the welders. It’s not coming for the plumbers. It’s not coming for the steamfitters, or the pipefitters or the HVAC. It’s not coming for the electricians.
A growing disconnect between education and job outlook
Workers with less schooling report feeling more hopeful than their more formally-educated peers about landing new work — the first such reversal in the three years since Gallup started collecting data, and a sharp one at that.
Until late 2024, 49% of those holding college degrees said that now is a “good time" to find a quality job, compared to 44% of those holding less than a college degree.
This sentiment shifted sharply in the first quarter of 2025, when only 32% of those with degrees felt optimistic. (Those without degrees retained the same level of optimism.) This shift continued trending downwards reaching its lowest point at 19% in the most recent 2025 Q4 survey — a 16-point difference from those who don’t hold degrees. (Notably, this cohort is still less optimistic than it was in 2022, when both folks with and without college degrees were at their most optimistic).
Reasons for the disconnect
Gallup finds the higher pessimism among the degree-holding group could be due to “white-collar hiring slowdowns and layoffs in professional sectors.”
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And Gallup isn’t the only institution to find a divide between the job market and education levels. Cengage Group’s 2025 Employability Report (3) shows the gap between education and employment is widening.
Less than one-third of 2025 graduates have landed full-time employment in the field of their study (down from 41% of 2024 graduates). While 26% of 2025 grads are employed in an unrelated field, 33% of this same cohort were actively looking for work.
These trends exist in the wider economy, where a weaker job market reflects a rising unemployment rate (4.4% in February (4)) and a loss of 92,000 jobs — the majority of them in healthcare (due to strikes), information, and with the federal government. And, as you might expect, artificial intelligence (5) is adding its own complexities into the job market mix.
What this means for the next generation of workers
While education may no longer offer a straight line to a comfortable life, quality education still offers benefits that extend beyond employment and salary. A 2024 report by Cengage (6) found nearly three-quarters (73%) of recent grads feel their education was worth the value. Similarly, a 2021 study from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce (7) found those holding a bachelor’s degree still earned a median of $2.8 million throughout their career — about 75% more than those holding only high school diplomas.
But recent monetary incentives and the “un-college” movement (8) could permanently shift this advantage, especially if the more-educated cannot find jobs.
For the next generation of workers, the question is no longer where to go for college, but how to make sure it pays off in the long run (9).
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Gallup (1); Moneywise (2); Cengage (3); St. Louis Fed (4); Moneywise (5); Cengage (6); Georgetown (7); Moneywise (8); Moneywise (9)
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Dragana Kovacevic is an associate editor for Moneywise.
