Apr 18, 2026
On April 15, Donald Trump sat down with Fox Business and said he was surprised oil was only this high.
At the time, crude oil was trading around $92 a barrel, roughly 27% above the pre-war level, after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed. Trump called that price "only high," suggesting he expected it to climb much higher.
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"If you told me that we were going to be at only $92 a barrel, I would have been very surprised," he told Fox Business. (1) "I'm very happy. And it's going to come dropping down very big as soon as it's over."
Two days later, on April 17, Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi declared the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" (2) to commercial traffic, and oil prices fell more than 9% in hours. (3) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped to $83.85 a barrel (4) and Brent, the global benchmark, sank to $90.38. (5)
What happens next depends on whether prices keep falling or stall — and no one really knows right now.
What Trump meant by 'only high'
Before the war, Brent was trading at $72.48 a barrel. (5)
At the peak of panic, Brent averaged $128 a barrel. (6) By the time Trump sat for his April 15 interview, prices had eased back below $90. His "only $92" framing makes more sense when you realize he was comparing it to $128, not to $72.
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Why the drop might not be as clean as it looks
ING analysts warned that even with the Strait open, physical oil markets are tightening "every day that passes without a restart of oil flows," (7) estimating roughly 13 million barrels per day of supply has been disrupted.
Trump's April 15 interview predicted prices would drop once the war ended, but Araghchi wrote on X that the Strait is only open until the end of the ongoing ceasefire, which was set to expire April 21. While both sides were expected to extend it, that was not guaranteed — meaning prices could still rise.
Trump responded to Araghchi's post by thanking Iran on Truth Social, and added that the U.S. naval blockade of Iran's ports will remain in "full force" (8) until the U.S. reaches a deal. The Strait remains open, but the underlying risk hasn't gone away.
The EIA's April 7 forecast (6) reflects that uncertainty, suggesting oil prices will stay elevated even after Hormuz flows resume, because sorting out backed-up tanker routes and trade flows takes time.
What this means for your wallet
Prices as of April 17, 2026. Oil markets remain volatile — check current prices before making any investment decisions.
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At the pump: A drop in crude prices usually shows up at the gas station within two to four weeks. The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (9) projected the national average gasoline price would climb to roughly $4.30 per gallon in April before easing, and that diesel will first peak around $5.80 per gallon before settling to an annual average of $4.80 per gallon for the rest of the year.
If the ceasefire holds and the Strait stays open, that forecast could improve. If talks collapse, those numbers will likely be revised upward. Don't plan your budget around a price drop that hasn't shown up at the pump yet.
For groceries: Diesel moves everything — the trucks stocking grocery shelves, the refrigerated transport carrying fresh produce, the ships bringing imports. Before the war, the USDA expected food prices to rise about 3.6% (10) in 2026. With diesel elevated, that figure is likely to go higher. Even if crude falls and diesel follows, supermarkets and supply chains take time to pass those savings on.
For your investments: Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) fell 3.65% (11) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) dropped 2.21% (12) on April 17, while American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) rose more than 4% and Royal Caribbean (NYSE:RCL) jumped over 7%. Cheaper fuel is bad for oil producers but a relief for companies that burn a lot of it.
If you've been holding energy stocks or ETFs as a war trade, this is a good moment to reassess. The energy sector did well during the conflict, but that edge fades quickly once the disruption eases. Airlines, retailers and transport stocks could see some relief if oil keeps falling.
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Article sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Fox Business (1); X (2); Reuters (3); CNBC (4) (5); U.S. Energy Information Administration (6) (9); ING Think (7); Truth Social (8); USDA Economic Research Service (10); ExxonMobil (11); Yahoo Finance (12)
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Godwin Oluponmile is a content specialist, SEO strategist and copywriter with seven years of expertise in finance, Web 3.0, B2B SaaS and technology.
