Apr 18, 2026
Many American farmers are headed into the spring planting season in crisis, and that crisis is impacting consumers, too. A new American Farm Bureau Federation survey (1) of 5,700 farmers — conducted April 3 to 11 — found 70% of farmers cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this season, and nearly 60% say their finances have deteriorated due to rising fertilizer and fuel costs.
Fertilizer prices are skyrocketing as the Iran war chokes the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world's oil and a significant share of agricultural inputs normally flow.
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"This is heart-wrenching for farmers to decide — do I lose money, or do I cut fertilizer, or, like, what do I do?" Bryan Hansel, Chief Revenue Officer at regenerative agriculture company Holganix, told Fortune (2).
How the Iran war is impacting farmers' costs
Iran moved to halt shipping through the strait on February 28, and the disruption has persisted despite a fragile ceasefire. Throughout six weeks of conflict, Iran has halted virtually all traffic by laying mines. Nitrogen, phosphorus and potash prices have skyrocketed as a result, leaving farmers scrambling.
At the six-week mark of the Hormuz closure, Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at financial services firm StoneX Group, laid out the damage in a post on X (3): urea was up 49%, liquid nitrogen (UAN) was up 38%, anhydrous ammonia was up 32%, and DAP — a phosphorus-based fertilizer — was up 21%.
These numbers are even harder on farmers who didn't prebook fertilizer before the war started. According to an American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) survey (4), only 19% of farmers in the South prebooked fertilizer ahead of the season, compared to 67% in the Midwest. Now 78% down south say they can't afford what they need, along with 48% of farmers in the Midwest.
While the Strait has allowed over 20 commercial ships to pass through (5) in the past few days, it's still not enough to restore fertilizer prices.
"We can't wait for the [Strait of Hormuz] to open back up and those ships to get here before we have to purchase those inputs," Lorenda Overman, a North Carolina farmer (6), told CNBC.
Farmers are left with three options: Cut down on fertilizer use and risk lower crop yields, buy the expensive costs and potentially lose money on the harvest, or sit out the season entirely and take on more debt.
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Fertilizer scarcity is only one part of the problem
The farm economy was already in crisis before fertilizer became costlier. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that net farm income will drop to $153.5 billion in 2026 (7) — about a 0.7% ($1.2 billion) decline from 2025, and this fertilizer scarcity just makes it worse.
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Already, the AFBF reported (8) an increase in farm bankruptcies to 315 filings in 2025, and total farm debt is expected to hit a record $624.7 billion in 2026.
A big reason? Farmers are paying more to grow crops than they'll sell them for.
For one, research has found that farmers tend to use more nitrogen (9) than crops need, which traps fields in a cycle of needing more inputs to maintain their yields.
The USDA predicts 2026 corn costs $5/bushel to grow (seeds + fertilizer + fuel + land + labor), but will sell for $4.20. It's the same case for soybeans, which cost $12.27 to produce but will sell for $10.30. This means that the average farmer loses $0.80 on corn and $2 on soybeans.
"We are paying input prices of 2026, but getting crop prices of the '70s and '80s," Tommy Salisbury, an Oklahoma farmer and Farm Bureau leader, told CNBC (6).
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Salisbury is reducing his milo acreage this year and shifting toward soybeans to cut fertilizer costs. Overman is doing the same thing in North Carolina by cutting corn and pivoting to soybeans, which need less nitrogen.
What farmers and consumers should expect next
Farmers can't afford full fertilizer doses, so many either skimp on applications (which would cause weaker plants and lower harvests) or switch acres from high-fertilizer crops like corn to low-input ones like soybeans, like Salisbury and Overman.
Farmers could also switch to quicker soil probiotics like Holganix Bio 800. But switching takes guts when they're already losing money.
AFBF economist Faith Parum (1) warns this directly threatens 2026 yields.
"When producers cannot afford full fertilizer application rates, they may reduce nutrient use or shift acreage decisions, both of which increase the risk of lower yields and reduced production potential in the 2026 crop year," she said.
Lower yields also means the prices of food will go higher. The USDA projected a 3.1% increase for all food prices in 2026 before the war, and now that the fertilizer prices are unaffordable, that figure could climb higher.
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
American Farm Bureau Federation (1),(4),(8); Fortune (2); X (3); The Wall Street Journal (5); CNBC (6); USDA Economic Research Service (7); University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (9)
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Godwin Oluponmile is a content specialist, SEO strategist and copywriter with seven years of expertise in finance, Web 3.0, B2B SaaS and technology.
