Economist Peter Schiff says Trump's $5,000 'bribe' for Americans will cause massive inflation — worse than anything under Biden

“Trump tried to buy the midterms by offering all voters a $5,000 bribe in exchange for their votes, provided they spend the cash in the U.S.,” he wrote on social media. “Since the Fed will have to print the money, the result would be massive inflation, well in excess of anything experienced under Biden.”

A longtime critic

This isn’t the first time Schiff has criticized Trump’s plans to give away federal money. He was an opponent to the Trump Accounts for kids, saying they were “nothing to celebrate” and those children would ultimately repay the seed money with interest. He has also spoken out against Trump’s tariffs and the current state of the Republican party. So his opposition to a $5,000 pledge that’s tied to election results isn’t surprising.

While Schiff also criticized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent for clapping at Trump’s promise, other government officials are quietly downplaying it. Vice President J.D. Vance told the Associated Press the payments would not go to the wealthy and suggested they could be paid for by tariff revenues.

That seems dubious as well, though, since the estimated $1.23 trillion it would take to cover these payments substantially exceeds the total amount the U.S. has earned from tariffs so far, which stands at less than $400 billion. (The Supreme Court, in February, also struck down some of Trump’s tariffs, resulting in refunds to businesses).

That total cost, incidentally, would exceed the budgets for Medicare and national defense — and would fall just 25% short of the cost of Social Security.

Hurdles to fulfilling the promise

Schiff’s warnings about the inflationary impact of these payments (along with their legality) could all be moot, however. Although some experts argued to the New York Times that the apparent bribe might be legal in a strict sense (or even considered protected speech under the First Amendment), Congress would have to approve the payments. That’s far from a sure thing, even if the Republicans win the midterms and retain control of both the House and Senate. There was bipartisan opposition to the plan the moment it was announced Wednesday.