Moody’s Mark Zandi: ‘Economic fallout’ from Trump’s tariffs is significant – and ‘the trend lines don’t look good.’ Which numbers look the worst

His graph showed that rates were relatively stable in the months leading up to Liberation Day and they started getting worse by September.

"The trend lines don't look good, especially as the economic fallout from the Iran War hits with full force," Zandi stated. "The U.S. economy is resilient, but just how resilient is set to be tested."

Here are the numbers Zandi's most concerned about — and what they could mean for you.

Low job growth and high inflation don't make a good pair

Zandi's graph focuses on two stats: Average monthly job growth and the year-over-year change of PCE inflation. It shows that, since Liberation Day, the amount of jobs added each month have mainly been decreasing, while inflation has mainly been increasing.

"Since that day, job growth has come to a standstill, with only the non-traded healthcare industry adding meaningfully to payrolls. Also, since that day, inflation has accelerated," Zandi said.

Zandi isn't the only economist to focus on jobs and inflation as key economic indicators. The Federal Reserve uses unemployment rates and CPI inflation to determine how it changes its rates. Keeping prices stable and employment high is the Fed's dual mandate (2).

The Fed aims for a 2% inflation rate. As of March 2026, the CPI inflation rate was 3.3% (3).

Unemployment is faring better than inflation, at 4.3%. The Fed doesn't have a specific unemployment rate it aims for, but 4.3% is considered low (4) — not something to worry about on its own.

Job growth tells a different story. After Liberation Day, the average number of jobs added per month started plummeting; for the past six months, more months saw the total number of jobs shrink than grow (5).

This, along with rising inflation, could indicate an economy struggling to grow under heavy tariff costs. It could also be why it's hard to find another job if you lose yours: there just aren't very many open jobs to take.