Jamie Dimon says the bull market is like a 'little tsunami' that even he finds surprising. But he says 'it will stop' — here's why

“We’re in a bull market. It’s like a little tsunami,” he said. “When that kind of thing happens, it’s very hard to stop. But it will stop.”

What caught Dimon off-guard about the economy

Dimon argued that a set of economic developments has insulated the U.S. economy from amplified turmoil so far this year.

He listed a low 4% unemployment rate, a capital spending boom among hyperscalers to build out data centers to fuel the AI boom, and a fresh wave of deregulation from the Trump administration that contributed to growing balance sheets among giant Wall Street banks. He also pointed out that the U.S. economy grew 2% in early 2026.

Still, Dimon said he’s been caught off guard by Wall Street’s complacency with global volatility given pervasive geopolitical tensions with Iran, Russia and China that may not be resolved anytime soon. The U.S. war with Iran, in particular, led to the closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz commercial waterway, blocking the transit of oil, fertilizers and other energy products that caused a surge in commodity prices. For nearly four months, financial markets mostly brushed it aside.

Since the start of the war, both the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes are up about 14% and 8%, respectively.

“I am surprised… that stuff is really important for the free world, but it’s not necessarily the economy today,” Dimon said.

“I do think the probability of something bad happening is higher than I think it’s probably embedded in the market,” he said, adding he believed investors were minimizing the odds of inflation that sticks around longer than they anticipate.