According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the average price per gallon of retail gas was $4.40 as of Thursday, October 1. This is an increase of about 14% from when Trump questioned Obama in 2012.
The irony of this situation begs the question: Can a president actually protect Americans from rising gas prices? Does a sitting president have the power to somehow set or influence gas prices?
The answer, however, is a bit more complicated. Industry experts and decades of price data show that gas prices are influenced by factors beyond the president, with some economists linking the idea that presidents determine the price of gas to economic illiteracy.
What actually moves the prices at the pump?
The price per barrel of crude oil is the major determinant of what you pay for gas at the pump. In an interview with WKYC Channel 3’s VERIFY, James Garrity, Director of Public Affairs for AAA East Central, said: “The largest factor is crude oil costs, which account for 50-60% of what we pay at the pump.”
The EIA’s latest gasoline and diesel fuel update reports that what Americans paid for in a gallon of gas, as of May 2026, was split between Crude Oil (52%), Refining (22%), Distribution & Marketing (15%), and Taxes (12%).
Because crude oil is a globally traded commodity, its price is determined by global supply and demand, not just what happens inside the United States. Hence, any disruptions to production, slowdowns, or geopolitical conflicts outside American borders directly affect gas prices at American pumps.
And that’s exactly what is playing out right now. The war with Iran has reduced the flow of crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for almost a fifth of the global oil trade. The price of Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, is about $102.25 at the time of writing, up about 58.45% today compared to its price in October last year, according to Yahoo Finance data.
“Oil is a global commodity that is impacted by what is happening worldwide,” Garrity said on WKYC VERIFY.
Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s veteran Head of Petroleum Analysis, also made the same point on WKYC VERIFY. Gas was cheaper under Obama’s second term than Trump’s first, but that traced to OPEC flooding the market in 2014, not the White House.
