The party controls the White House and both chambers of Congress, and President Donald Trump won in 2024 promising gas under $2 a gallon within 12 months. His party’s own internal polling, Axios reported on Sept. 5, shows voters blame his war with Iran for the spike.
Why gas jumped 18 cents in one night
Crude had initially spiked above $100 a barrel on that same Sept. 9 day — a level it hadn’t touched since July,. Overnight, U.S. and Iranian forces traded heavy strikes and Houthi fighters hit Saudi oil infrastructure. West Texas Intermediate crossed $103 the next day, which is roughly 50% above where it bottomed out on July 2. Pump prices usually catch up to crude within a few days.
When the U.S. launched its first strikes on Feb. 28, the national average gas price was $2.98, according to AAA. On Sept. 11, it was $4.27. Diesel hit a record $5.97 this week.
Jacksonville’s overnight jump was steeper than the state’s: about 21 cents, to $4.10. A year ago, the local average there was $3.07. Tampa Bay hit $4.09 on Sept. 9, up 23 cents in a day, though bargain hunters that morning could still find $3.57 at three stations: a Shell and a Sam’s Club in Brandon and a Mobil in Lutz.
The state had gotten a reprieve in early June. By June 8, the average had eased to $3.78, following a rough 18% two-week slide in crude. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan attributed the drop partly to optimism about a potential U.S.-Iran agreement. That agreement fell apart in July.
What expensive gas has done to the party in power before
Midterms are generally rough on the party in power,, no matter what gas costs. A Politico analysis found the president’s party has lost 21 House seats on average since 1978, and the damage has run much deeper in years when pump prices rose. Democrats gave up 64 seats in 2010, after gas climbed 56% between President Barack Obama’s inauguration and the October before the vote. The exception proves little comfort: Democrats lost only nine seats in 2022 despite a 73% price run-up, a result the analysis ties partly to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade months earlier.
In a Politico poll, 46% of voters said the price of gas will factor into their November vote — though only 15% of that group said it would push them to a different party. Political scientists Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien build a forecast from presidential approval and disposable income; their model projects a 33-seat Republican loss.
The GOP gathered in Dallas this week for its first midterm convention, with affordability on the program both nights. Trump, speaking at Joint Base Andrews on Sept. 9 before departing for Dallas, was emphatic when telling reporters the war would end right after the election and take oil prices down with it, with gasoline eventually below $2 a gallon. As for when drivers would feel it, he said it would likely take “a little bit longer than the midterms.”
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