‘It’s time to pay the fiddler’: As chill sets in on Florida’s once-hot housing market, sellers are now getting squeezed — but here’s why it’s no buyer’s paradise either

Pandemic housing frenzy hits pause

During the COVID-19 era, a wave of remote workers, sun-seeking transplants and looser restrictions turned Florida into ground zero for red-hot real estate. Builders raced to meet demand. Now that demand has cooled.

Then came two hurricanes, a spiraling insurance crisis and record-breaking homeownership costs. Panic-inducing headlines are drawing comparisons to the 2008 crash, but experts urge caution before sounding the alarm.

“It’s nowhere near that,” real estate expert Vincent Arcuri said recently on Full Circle Florida. “Interest rates are at 6.5 %, if you saw interest rates go anywhere in the 5s, you would see the market shift overnight, properties would start to skyrocket again, so it does have a lot to do with how much I'm putting down and how much is my payment? And that's what really drives the economics of people buying homes.”

Some homeowners who bought at the peak may be feeling the pinch.

“You have people that came from the pandemic that overpaid, now it’s time to pay the fiddler,” Arcuri said. “I think those people that came in and paid $50,000, $100,000 over market, they’re seeing a reduction now in value, plus they overpaid when they bought, which is offsetting some of the equity in those homes.”

So are the issues local or regional? According to Arcuri, Florida’s housing market isn’t uniform.

Inventory is rising in parts of Florida like Tampa Bay, St. Petersburg and Clearwater, but much of that is due to condos, not single-family homes. The surge is being driven by region-specific factors: new milestone inspection rules, skyrocketing HOA fees and soaring insurance premiums — all of which are dragging down condo sales.

While headline numbers may suggest a broad market slowdown, many statistics are skewed by the flood of condo listings. The situation is more regional than statewide.

Recent hurricanes have only added pressure, particularly on older and coastal condo communities, while inland areas and single-family markets remain more resilient.

So, when will the market bounce back? That largely depends on policy. And as Arcuri puts it, “Until we have significant insurance reform.”

Invest in real estate without the headache of being a landlord

Imagine owning a portfolio of thousands of well-managed single family rentals or a collection of cutting-edge industrial warehouses. You can now gain access to a $1B portfolio of income-producing real estate assets designed to deliver long-term growth from the comforts of your couch.

The best part? You don’t have to be a millionaire and can start investing in minutes.

Learn More

What does it mean for buyers and sellers?

As homes spend more time on the market — especially in places like Tampa Bay and South Florida — buyers are seeing the return of perks not seen since before the pandemic.

But that doesn’t mean today’s buyers have it easy. While home prices may be stabilizing, hidden costs loom:

Florida now has the highest average home insurance premiums in the U.S., with some regions seeing rates above $11,000.

Condo owners in coastal cities are facing 15% plus hikes in HOA fees due to mandatory inspections and storm upgrades.

Mortgage rates remain high, hovering around 6.5%, making monthly payments a real hurdle. Many first-time buyers are already stretched thin by student loans and rising living costs.

Sellers, meanwhile, must adjust to a slower market. Price cuts and concessions are increasingly common, especially for condos facing the brunt of the state's insurance and structural safety challenges.

So, what should sellers be thinking about? First, price your home realistically. Overpricing means your listing will sit. Consider offering incentives, like covering closing costs, to stand out. Know your costs. High insurance and maintenance fees can make your home harder to sell, so be upfront and ready to discuss those with potential buyers. Most experts agree — this isn’t 2008. Homeowners today typically have equity and more responsible loans. Still, without insurance reform, expect a choppy market.

For now, buyers should do their homework and negotiate hard. Sellers should stay realistic and flexible. Arcuri suggests homeowners just stay put.

“If you’ve got a low interest rate, be patient,” he said. “These markets are cyclical. I’ve seen this happen time and time again. Florida’s fundamentals are still strong. Give it a couple of years, and we’ll be talking about the next housing boom.”