Apr 12, 2026
Following a series of well-timed bets that seemed to be able to predict the future, the White House reportedly sent out an internal email warning employees against placing trades on financial markets using confidential information.
Those financial markets include event-betting platforms and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, which have become extremely popular in the last year.
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As Bloomberg reports (1), the White House's internal warning came after several controversial and highly-profitable bets pertaining to President Trump's military decisions on Venezuela and Iran raised questions about the potential for insider trading.
The bets that raised red flags
The internal email, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal (2), was reportedly sent out on March 24, according to a White House staffer who requested anonymity.
On the day before the email was sent, Trump shared on Truth Social that the U.S. had "very good and productive conversations" with Iran (3). In that same post, the president also announced a five-day pause on his threat to target Iranian power plants.
Meanwhile, just 16 minutes before Trump's Truth Social post made the price of crude oil plummet — while equities began to soar — futures for stocks and oil that were reportedly worth billions had already changed hands (4).
According to Bloomberg, contracts related to around six million barrels of West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil were sold in about two minutes at around 6:49 a.m. on March 23. That number of barrels — coupled with the two-minute time frame — was an immediate red flag, as the average amount of barrels sold in a two-minute span was roughly 700,000 throughout the five previous trading days.
Roughly 16 minutes later, Trump published his Truth Social post, at around 7:05 a.m. ET.
Meanwhile, several well-timed wagers on Iran that were placed on Polymarket had also raised suspicions of insider activity. These bets, which were reportedly placed using brand new anonymous accounts, generated extremely large sums of money (5) and prompted analysts to search for signs of insider trading.
Other profitable bets that were placed earlier in the year before the capture of Nicolas Maduro, the former President of Venezuela, had also raised suspicions (6).
'Baseless and irresponsible reporting'
While oil and stocks have proven to be volatile during the war in Iran, the unusual pattern of prediction market bets and futures trading has raised concerns for many analysts and everyday investors.
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Employees of the federal government are strictly prohibited from using confidential information for their own financial gain, as well as gambling on government property.
At this time, there is no evidence that proves government officials are profiting from top-secret information, but the White House's email to staffers reportedly placed a focus on prediction markets, which have created quite a lot of concern as many believe these platforms lack sufficient guardrails to prevent people from trading with confidential information.
Meanwhile, White House spokesman Davis Ingle defended those in Trump's administration against any and all allegations of insider trading.
"All federal employees are subject to government ethics guidelines that prohibit the use of nonpublic information for financial benefit. However, any implication that administration officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting," Ingle shared in a statement shared with several outlets (7).
"President Trump has been crystal clear: while he seeks a strong and profitable stock market for everyone, members of Congress and other government officials should be prohibited from using nonpublic information for financial benefit. The only special interest that will ever guide President Trump is the best interest of the American people."
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Bloomberg (1),(4); The Wall Street Journal (2); Truth Social (3); The Block (5); PBS (6); The Hill (7)
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Chase Kell is an associate editor for Moneywise.
