Jun 11, 2026
As concerns grow surrounding the prediction market industry, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed new limits on what topics can and can’t be subject to wagers. And while sports bettors might shrug, people who enjoy exploring the fringes of prediction markets are likely to grumble.
The proposal, which was first reported by The Wall Street Journal, would give the CFTC the ability to block wagers it feels are not in the public interest or could be susceptible to manipulation. That would likely do away with bets on things like war, or player injuries in sports, though wagering on the outcome of the game would still be permitted.
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This proposal follows existing guidance the CFTC has already given prediction markets on where bets should be avoided. Most platforms have moved to remove these sorts of wagers in advance of a formal decree by the regulatory agency.
No specific bans
While the proposal does outline the factors regulators will use when determining if a bet is appropriate, it does not specifically list any type of banned topics.
The objective, say officials, is not to hinder growth, but rather to regulate the markets and cut down on fraud and bets on geopolitical events, which could lure people with knowledge of secret information to make a bet, potentially alerting an enemy to a military attack or endangering lives.
That was an issue earlier this year when the Justice Department announced a U.S. soldier named Gannon Ken Van Dyke had been arrested and charged for placing bets on Polymarket using classified information he had access to regarding the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.
Van Dyke allegedly bet just over $33,000 on the markets before the military action, winning nearly $410,000, officials say. He’s charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each of which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison; one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison.
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Federal control
The CFTC has fought to keep control of prediction markets on the federal level. Last month the commission asked a federal court to prevent Minnesota from implementing the prohibition on companies like Polymarket and Kalshi, which is currently set to go into effect on Aug. 1. The commission has also sued five other states to prevent regulation of prediction markets.
The proposed limits on prediction markets come as the spotlight on these outlets intensifies. A recent study by The Wall Street Journal found that 67% of profits on Polymarket, one of the leading prediction markets in the world, go to just 0.1% of accounts. And of the 1.6 million accounts studied, more than 1.1 million were unprofitable.
Over on Kalshi, there are 2.9 unprofitable users for every profitable one.
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Chris Morris is a veteran journalist with more than 35 years of experience at many of the internet's biggest news outlets. In addition to his activities as a writer, reporter and editor, Chris is also a frequent panel moderator and speaker at major conferences, including CES and South by Southwest.
