Jun 10, 2026
This could be one of the hottest summers on record. It could also be one of the most expensive.
As The Washington Post reports, an estimated 150 million Americans are experiencing the first massive heat wave of the summer. Vast regions are blanketed with humid highs of 90 degrees or more.
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With the exception of the Pacific Northwest, the country looks like a heat map. And it will continue to do so as the summer wears on and extreme heat bears down on the West, Gulf Coast and East Coast.
That has Mark Wolfe, executive director of the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), pointing to another heat map, with electricity costs expected to soar across the U.S. this summer — at a time one in six households is behind on energy bills.
He projects residential utility debt to hit $23 billion by year’s end.
“A lot of people are just living paycheck to paycheck,” Wolfe told Moneywise. “They’ve seen the cost of gas go up with the war, now electricity is going up.”
Turns out the summer of ’26 is a perfect electrical storm — with extreme heat, AI data centers, grid improvements and Trump’s tariffs all playing a role in higher cooling bills.
Moneywise spoke to Wolfe about that storm, and the summer forecast for bills across the country.
Surge pricing in the summer
AI data centers are one of the biggest factors driving up electrical prices.
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“The problem with data centers is that the rate structure they’re working under is antiquated,” Wolfe told Moneywise.
He explained that ironically, utilities don’t have enough data to know how much electricity data centers use over time, so they charge them traditional rates — like for a car plant — regardless of usage patterns.
AI data centers draw a lot of energy for cooling — putting them in direct competition with residential customers in the summer. This could lead utilities to impose peak pricing on residential customers this summer, like surge charging in the ride-share industry.
Meanwhile, states are upgrading their grids to support data centers and future electrical needs. Wolfe notes that a lot of these upgrades are long overdue, but ratepayers are being asked to shoulder some of the cost, another line on residential electric bills.
Wolfe said the grid improvements are the main reason electrical rates have increased faster than inflation since 2021.
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Even President Donald Trump’s tariffs will add to air conditioning costs this summer — specifically to the cost of air conditioners themselves.
As The Street reports, the federal government has reversed a tariff exemption on air conditioners and components imported from Mexico — the largest exporter of air conditioners to the U.S. The reversal increases the effective tariff from 8% to 25%.
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This summer’s electric bill forecast, by region
NEADA has already had to forecast cooling cost projections further upwards after releasing them earlier this month. But now, ‘It’s worse,’ Mark Wolfe states. Here’s a look at NEADA’s latest forecast for regional electricity bills, ranked from biggest hike (13.8%) to smallest (4.9%). No one is escaping the heat.
Mountain: $728, up $88 (13.8% hike)
This vast region — which includes Arizona (home to 164 data centers) — will see the biggest hike in cooling costs. Some of that is down to grid improvement. Montana is working with North Dakota on a $3.2 billion transmission line to connect America’s eastern and western grids. Colorado is spending $1.7 billion to expand its own grid.
South Atlantic: $854, up $87 (12.8% hike)
As summer heat descends on this southern region, residents of data-center rich states like Georgia and Virginia will see cooling costs spike nearly 13%.
Pacific: $744, up $75 (11.2% hike)
The Pacific Region is another data-center rich region, including California (321 data centers), Oregon (137) and Washington State (132). This will drive up residential cooling costs, as are California’s $6.1 billion electrical grid improvements.
New England: $839, up $81 (10.6% hike)
Most of the data centers in New England are in Boston, although others are proposed for neighboring states. Wolfe says El Niño is the main reason cooling bills will be up an average $81 in this region, driving a very hot summer forecast.
Mid Atlantic: $799, up $59 (7.9% hike)
Residents of New York are already seeing higher electric bills thanks to the state’s 142 data centers and a $4 billion investment in grid improvements. But their neighbors will also see their electric bills increase an average 8% this summer.
East North Central: $691, up $50 (7.8% hike)
Ratepayers in this region — including Illinois (home to 244 data centers) and Ohio (home to 203 data centers) — will see cooling costs spike nearly 8%.
West South Central: $890, up $61 (7.4% hike)
Residents of Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and Texas (home 413 data centers) will feel the combined stress of extreme heat and high utility bills this summer with a 7.4% average spike.
East South Central: $807, up $48 (6.3% hike)
Ratepayers in Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee are in for a 6.3% spike, with extreme weather playing a role.
West North Central: $691, up $32 (4.9% hike)
Residents in the Plains states will see a hotter summer than normal thanks to El Niño, and can expect a 5% average hike in their electricity bills.
So what can an average household do to rein in these costs?
NEADA’s Mark Wolfe says there’s not much people can do about the hot temperatures. He adds that it’s tough to take on data centers, as much as some states and communities are trying.
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He says the best way to control household cooling costs this summer is by reducing consumption. But he doesn’t advise doing without.
“People think they can turn off their air conditioning and nothing will happen, but there is a result, and it can be heat stroke,” he warned.
Instead, he suggests simple moves like raising the temperature on your thermostat. Every 1 degree you raise it saves an average 3% on your electric bill, he says.
And he shares one bit of recent good news. The U.S. Department of Energy has just released $8.8 billion in funds for an energy-efficiency home improvement program.
Wolfe says some families may qualify for up to $15,000 in funding to upgrade their homes, including such things as improving insulation or putting in an energy-efficient air conditioning system.
“People should know about this funding,” he says, particularly as electricity bills are only going to rise for the foreseeable future.
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Laura Boast is an Associate Editor with Moneywise.com and a lifelong content creator who has reached international audiences at Discovery, CBC, Blue Ant Media, Bond Brand Loyalty and more.
