Apr 29, 2026
Not even the markets predicted last week's comment by the vice president.
During an April 23 White House press conference, Vice President JD Vance said, "Let Marco make his Polymarket bet on that first" in reference to a suggestion that Italy replace Iran in the World Cup. (1)
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The joke implies Secretary of State Marco Rubio would commit insider trading if given the chance.
Unlike Vance, commenters on X aren't laughing. Insider trading and corruption on trading markets have been hot topics recently. Two storylines in particular have made Americans especially sensitive to the government and prediction markets.
Betting on military operations and elections
Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice announced a U.S. soldier was charged with using classified information to earn a cool $400,000 on prediction marketplace Polymarket. (2)
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, the accused, reportedly "participated in the planning and execution of the U.S. military operation to capture Nicolás Maduro." The soldier is accused of using that info to place successful bets on Maduro being deposed. He has pleaded not guilty.
And that's just one incident. Insider trading has also come to elections.
Prediction market Kalshi fined and suspended three congressional candidates who bet on their own elections, Business Insider reports. (3) US Senate Democratic primary candidate Mark Moran (Virginia) was fined $6,229, plus any profits received from the trades. Matt Klein (Minnesota) and Ezekiel Enriquez (Texas) admitted to wrongdoing and settled with Kalshi. (4) Moran claimed he only made the bet to ensure the rules are being properly enforced.
Concerns over prediction markets aren't new. Lawmakers have proposed multiple bills to shut down insider trading within the government.
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Congress says ‘no more betting,’ rolls out bills
Over half a dozen bills have been launched within Congress. These are designed to combat insider trading within the government.
The Congressional report Prediction Markets and Insider Trading Law explicitly highlights seven bills designed to curtail trading. (5) At least two are bipartisan: the PREDICT Act and Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. Both target powerful government insiders, JD Vance included.
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The PREDICT Act forbids many government figures from trading contracts related to political events and government actions. (6) Among those on the "no-trade" list are the President, the Vice President, members of Congress and their immediate family members and congressional staff.
Less far-reaching is the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act. The Act would specifically forbid the President, Vice President, members of Congress, and others from using insider information to profit on prediction-market trades. (7) It would impose a fine of up to twice the profits earned from trades.
Last week, Republican Senator Bernie Moreno (R-OH) introduced a Senate-specific rule: the Moreno Senate Resolution. (8) The rule would specifically target Senators and prevent them from trading contracts. (9) Because it's internal and not legislation, it only requires a Senate majority to pass. The Senator is asking for unanimous consent. (10)
Notably, Moreno has publicly supported prediction markets in the past. When the CFTC moved to defend them against state regulators in February, he applauded the move as "essential for American-led innovation." (11) This means the industry's own allies may be lining up with its critics.
For the first time, both parties seem to agree the status quo can't hold. Whether any of these proposals actually become law is the next thing to watch.
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
X (1),(10),(11); U.S. Department of Justice (2); Business Insider (3),(4); U.S. Congress (5),(6),(7); Senator Bernie Moreno (8),(9)
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Cole Tretheway has been covering money for four years. He started as an intern at The Motley Fool Money, covering best-of credit cards, savings accounts and financial products. He's since expanded into holistic personal finance, including the psychology of money.
