$4 gas is absolutely crushing Trump’s approval rating — here’s what happens to him next, according to history

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping route — by Iran following the U.S.–Israeli attacks at the end of February has largely contributed to the rise in gas prices. The average national price is now more than $4.50 according to AAA (2), while crude oil is trading at around $100 a barrel (3).

It’s the first time gas rose above $4 nationally since 2022 — a year that included one week where gas hit $5 a gallon. It’s also a sharp rise from two months ago, when prices remained under $3 per gallon.

Some states, meanwhile, are feeling the pinch even worse due to local regulations and taxes, with Washington and Hawaii up over $5.60 a gallon as California tops $6 (4).

“We’re in a war that we shouldn’t be in that’s, therefore, hiking up our prices, from a president who ran on getting gas prices low,” frustrated Michigan driver Kelly Gravlin told PBS (5). In her state, gas prices remain are now above the national average, at $4.86 a gallon.

Gas prices making a bigger impact today

While gas prices haven’t yet hit the $5-a-gallon mark like they did in 2022, the current price surge is nevertheless hitting consumers harder than it did four years ago.

That’s because, “Consumers are in a much weaker position now than they were in 2022,” Christopher Hodge, chief economist of the U.S. for Natixis CIB, told the BBC (6).

He added that, back in 2022, many Americans were coming out of the other side of the pandemic with increased savings cushions and higher wage growth. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s wage growth tracker shows that, in August 2022 — the last time gas prices averaged $4 a gallon nationally — median U.S. wage growth stood at 6.7%. As of March 2026, the last month of available data, it hit 3.9% (7).

The unemployment rate also averaged 3.6% in 2022 (8), while the current rate sits at 4.3% (9). Meanwhile, the hiring rate dropped to 3.1% in February — the lowest since the start of the pandemic in April 2020 (10).

As far as savings, one February 2026 report showed that 51% of Americans now live paycheck to paycheck (11). The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimates that the $2.1 trillion Americans saved during the pandemic was spent by March 2024 (12).

Promises of improving the economy and affordability were, of course, major factors in propelling President Trump to a second term. But the Reuters/Ipsos poll found that voters aren’t happy with his performance in those areas either. Authors noted that, on inflation and rising prices, he received only 21% approval, while 27% approve his handling the economy (1).

Historically speaking, what this means for Trump and Republicans

A glance at the history books shows that presidents whose approval ratings dip into the 30s or lower often face massive repercussions at the midterm polls (13).

For example, Democratic President Harry Truman’s approval ratings hovered in the low 30s heading into the 1946 midterms (14), which famously saw Republicans take both the Senate and House — winning the latter by flipping 55 seats (15).

In the 2006 midterms, Democrats took back both the House and Senate as President George W. Bush struggled with an approval rating in the high 30s (16).

And in 2018, Trump himself felt the blowback at the polls when Democrats won the House partly on the back of the president’s 45% approval rating (17).

For Trump and Republicans in 2026, the odds don’t look much better.

“I’ve never seen the fundamentals of an election cycle as bad for an incumbent party as I am right now,” Republican strategist Mike Madrid said in a recent interview with Newsweek (18).

Democrats have run the board when it comes to special elections during Trump’s second term, flipping 30 red seats blue in a possible political portent of what’s to come in November (19).