The idea of a basic universal income has taken on new possibilities in 2026, especially because of the very thing that has triggered thousands of job losses nationwide.
As artificial intelligence continues to progress at a dizzying speed, many residents rightfully fear for the future of their careers, grappling with the question of whether their careers can be completed just as well (or even better) by a computer algorithm.
The answer, in many cases and to various degrees, may be yes — but that doesn’t have to be a negative thing, argue tech gurus.
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Those at the cutting edge of AI truly seem to believe that, alongside all of its dangers, the technology will herald unthinkable economic prosperity.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman foresees “universal extreme wealth,” with everyone getting a share of what AI creates, while Elon Musk predicts that “universal high income” will become a reality when machines are able to produce enough to eliminate scarcity, leaving us to laze about and reap the rewards.
But what happens in the meantime — that is, if we ever reach — the “penthouses for all” stage of AI’s curve? Is guaranteed income at all manageable now in the present-day world?
The costs and benefits of UBI now
One recent trial of universal basic income in the U.S. targeted people laid off due to AI. The pilot project began sending out $1,000 per month to a handful of individuals back in March, using money raised through donations to the Fund for Guaranteed Income.
In total, the fund says it has dispersed some $25 million to thousands of Americans. But it’s all funded by private sector entities, while most think of UBI as being government-funded. With tax dollars stretched, and national debt having grown to insurmountable levels, it’s hard to imagine such an initiative, which would cost trillions annually, would ever be feasible.
Calls to increase taxes on the highest-earning individuals and their companies are ongoing. Oregon even proposed levying businesses earning more than $25 million per year and delivering that money directly to residents.
But ramping up taxation doesn’t always play out well in reality, as it can stymie investment and entrepreneurship, prompt capital and job flight and can be perceived as a punishment for success.
For those who have been lucky enough to participate in a UBI project, though, the help can be life-changing.
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‘It felt like I had won the lottery’
As part of a recent $50 million campaign to address homelessness in the Bay Area, Google has worked with non-profits to offer locals cash support to get them off the streets. Monthly checks were distributed to select residents, who were then followed to measure the impact.
The New York Times checked in with some recipients, finding that the instant benefits such as “breathing room for groceries, rent and other expenses” were undeniable.
But the outlet added that “the success of the payments in another area — giving people more free time and opportunity in the long term — was mixed.”
One woman was able to better provide for herself and her one-year-old, as well as help support her mother and sister, who were also on social assistance and ended up moving in with her. She said the gift was like “being given a head start.”
Another individual likened the experience to winning the lottery, as he was living hand-to-mouth on food stamps due to a drug addiction, and had his electricity cut off while he was recuperating from open-heart surgery.
“At the end of each month, [he] had to choose whether to pay for electricity, for laundry or for groceries. With the basic income payments, he could do all three. It was the first time he could pay to do laundry in six months,” NYT wrote. Yet another said the year of cheques made her feel “less helpless,” even after they stopped coming, “My 10 problems turned to nine.”
But the problem of funding and implementation on a large scale still looms over ongoing attempts to test and measure the potential effects of basic income. Some have pointed out that such a program would likely necessitate cutting existing programs that many in poverty rely on, “divorcing assistance from need.”
Others point out that subsidizing jobs could be a better route, as meaningful work is what gives people status, routine and opportunity for progress, “none of which can be replaced by a check.”
With that in mind, providing steady income for those who lose their positions to AI until they can land another gig could make even more sense.
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Becky Robertson is a senior staff reporter at Moneywise and a lifelong writer. Along with more than a decade covering news at outlets like blogTO and Quill & Quire, she's attended writing residencies around the world. With 33 countries visited, she finds travel to be among her greatest inspirations.
