Apr 9, 2026
Grocery and oil prices have risen quickly (1) in the five weeks since President Donald Trump attacked Iran. The launch of the Iran war made it harder for goods to travel internationally and drove the price of oil to over $100 a barrel (2). This affected consumer wallets directly through higher prices at the gas pump and indirectly through increased production costs for beef and other foods.
On April 7, Trump took to Truth Social (3) to announce a two-week ceasefire in the war between the U.S. and Iran.
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“I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” he posted. “This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!”
The next day, the price of crude oil dropped to $95 per gallon — a 15% drop (4). But even if this ceasefire marks the end of the Iran war, which is unlikely, consumers will need to wait a while before the price of groceries and gas returns to normal.
The timeline to affordability varies greatly depending on how the Iran war develops going forward. Here are some things to keep in mind while you wait for prices to go back down.
A two-week ceasefire doesn't end the conditions causing prices to go up
As part of the Truth Social post announcing the two-week ceasefire, Trump said that Iran agreed to “the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz.” But on April 8, one day after the ceasefire was announced, Israel attacked Lebanon and, as such, Iran closed the Strait again (5).
The Foreign Minister of Iran, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, said on X (6) that the attacks on Lebanon break the ceasefire agreement.
“The Iran-U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit,” he wrote. “The U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both. The world sees the massacres in Lebanon. The ball is in the U.S. court, and the world is watching whether it will act on its commitments.”
If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, then oil tankers will still struggle to carry their contents to American soil, making the price of oil go up once more. Even if the Strait of Hormuz opens up again, it could close back down if a peace agreement isn't reached by the end of the ceasefire.
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In order for prices to go back to normal, the Strait of Hormuz needs to stay open. Continuing the Iran war would make that much harder.
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Oil and grocery costs could take months or years to recover
Once the Strait of Hormuz is permanently open, oil prices should start to go down. But it's unlikely that they'll return immediately to pre-February 2026 levels.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (7) (EIA) predicts that crude oil prices will be highest in Q2 2026 before slowly falling through 2026 and 2027. The Brent crude oil price is projected to be $76 per barrel in 2027 — up from its previous prediction of $64 per barrel. In comparison, the Brent crude oil price was $69 per barrel in 2025.
The EIA also predicts that the retail price for gasoline will be $3.46 per gallon in 2027. In 2025, the retail price for gasoline was $3.10 per gallon.
Because food production and transportation relies on fuel, grocery costs will also be elevated as long as the cost of oil remains high. However, the full effects of oil prices on groceries could take a while to kick in.
How to prepare your budget for whatever comes next
Don't assume a temporary ceasefire means a permanent price drop. Regardless of how the two-week ceasefire develops, you'll need to make some extra space in your budget for increasing oil and grocery prices.
Bloomberg (8) predicts that the April 10 Consumer Price Index report will show a 1% inflation increase for March, the biggest increase since 2022. Paying attention to what areas were hit the hardest in March can help you plan ahead for inflation increases in April and May.
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Diversifying any investments you may have can help safeguard your savings and mitigate the impact of market volatility. As oil prices continue to climb and fluctuate over time, spreading your investments across various asset classes, industries, and geographical locations ultimately ensures that poor performance in any one area will be better balanced by the potential for gains in others.
Likewise, being mindful of spending habits—and unnecessary spending—during times of financial uncertainty is important.
When it comes to necessities like groceries, cutting down on perishable foods that require refrigeration to stay fresh could also help your wallet stay intact. That's because perishable foods require more fuel for transportation and more storage than shelf-stable options.
But cutting down on perishables doesn't necessarily mean stocking up on nonperishables. David Ortega, a food economist and professor at Michigan State University, told CNBC (9) that hoarding groceries is “extremely counterproductive” and simply “makes a bad situation worse.”
Price increases tend to be incremental, so stocking up won't save much. It will, however, put increased pressure on prices.
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
U.S. Energy Information Administration (1),(7); OilPrice (2); Truth Social (3); NBC News (4); CNN (5); X (6); Bloomberg (8); CNBC (9)
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Kit Pulliam is a DC-based financial journalist with over five years of experience writing, editing, and fact-checking financial content. They've covered a wide variety of financial topics, including banking, taxes, budgeting, investing, politics, the economy, and government policy.
