Apr 9, 2026
Economists are expecting a jump in inflation when this month’s Consumer Price Index report lands on Friday — possibly the biggest spike in two years.
Americans have been feeling pain at the pumps, with the Iran war causing gas prices to spike by 56% year-over-year (1), but the CPI may reveal other areas where Americans are feeling the sting of inflation.
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Predictions are that inflation will jump (2) by as much as 1% compared to last month’s report.
That would push inflation (3) to 3.4%, up from 2.4% a year ago. Inflation measured by the CPI hasn’t sat above 3.4% since March 2024.
Predictions for the inflation report
The Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) says (4) that the March CPI report will show the “clear effects” of the Iran war.
The think tank predicts that the gas price index will spike by about 20%. And this massive jump would add 0.6 percentage points to the monthly inflation rate.
Food prices are also likely to see a jump in the inflation report. While the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacted fertilizer prices (5), it may be too soon for those effects to be seen in the inflation report, CEPR says. The CEPR report notes that food inflation in March will be a result of jumps in fruit and vegetable prices, “likely connected to the loss of immigrant farm workers.”
Like food prices, it’s likely too soon to see the impacts of the war on airline prices, CEPR says.
Amid the Iran war, airlines have said that they would add fees (6) due to the skyrocketing cost of jet fuel.
Although a two-week cease-fire agreement was reached on Tuesday, it’s unclear whether fee increases from airlines will become permanent. Delta, which announced a hike on baggage fees, “did not immediately answer if the new rates were intended to be permanent” or would be reduced if the war were to end, the Guardian reported (6).
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Aside from the price of oil, other commodities (7) have also shot up since the Iran war began, including liquefied natural gas and aluminum. Diesel, derived from petroleum, also saw steep (8) price increases.
Vidya Mani, a University of Virginia associate business professor, told (7) The Poynter Institute that because diesel powers farm equipment and freight vehicles, price hikes can have wide-ranging impacts.
“When diesel rises quickly, groceries, household basics, and building materials often follow,” Mani said.
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Longer-term impacts
Inflationary impacts from the war could stretch through the year, one CEO warned. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon wrote in a letter (9) to shareholders that “because of the war in Iran, we additionally face the potential for significant ongoing oil and commodity price shocks, along with the reshaping of global supply chains, which may lead to stickier inflation.”
Harvard economist and former International Monetary Fund chief economist Kenneth Rogoff also recently warned about the war’s long reach.
Speaking with CNN (10) last week, Rogoff said that longer-term implications of the war could mean that interest rates “are going to be higher […] and I think they’re going to stay higher, and it’s painful.”
“Why? Because there’s more uncertainty. Because everybody sees that a lot of money has to go into military spending, that’s certainly going to be a lasting effect of this,” Rogoff went on to say. “The world economy is likely to remain more fragmented.”
Article Sources
We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our editorial ethics and guidelines.
Trading Economics (1); Bloomberg (2); Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (3); Center for Economic and Policy Research (4); International Food Policy Research Institute (5); The Guardian (6); PolitiFact (7); U.S. Energy Information Administration (8); JPMorgan Chase (9); CNN (10)
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Rebecca Payne has more than a decade of experience editing and producing both local and national daily newspapers. She's worked on the Toronto Star, the Globe and Mail, Metro, Canada's National Observer, the Virginian-Pilot and Daily Press.
