Get ready for french fry inflation: Potato futures surge 700% in under a month as supply chain fears mount amid Iran war

While the U.S. is the world's fifth largest producer of potatoes, futures are primarily traded on European exchanges.

The spike in prices came about because of fears that the war in Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz will impact fertilizer exports and, ultimately, supply chains around the world. Potatoes are considered a nutrient-intensive crop and rely heavily on fertilizer, meaning a prolonged disruption could eventually trickle down to everything from restaurant french fries to bags of chips and frozen hash browns.

If there's good news in this situation for Europeans, it's that much of the continent is currently experiencing an oversupply of potatoes (2), as farmers have expanded their fields in recent years amid growing demand. Favorable weather has resulted in larger than usual harvests.

Additionally, the recent highs are nowhere close to the peaks of the past 10 years. In May of 2023, potato futures topped €51.

Food inflation in the U.S. is already high

While the impact of this spud futures surge on U.S. consumers remains to be seen, consumers are still seeing an overall increase in the price of their groceries. The April Consumer Price Index (3) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a 2.9% increase compared to April 2025. Fruits and vegetables as a whole were up 6.1% in that time period. Prices for fruits and vegetables were up 1.8% compared to the prior month.

Potatoes saw their actual prices (as opposed to futures prices) rising 1.9% (4) year-over-year and month-over-month.

Beyond the impact on fertilizer production, the conflict's resulting increase in gas prices also impacts grocery prices, since the price of transporting food to stores increases as well. Reuters has reported that the conflict has already driven up oil shipping costs and transport prices (5).

Supply of essential fertilizer could become disrupted

Europe last saw a severe fertilizer shortage in 2021 (6), which also contributed to a spike in food prices. Some traders may be worried about the U.S. war with Iran disrupting the supply of essential fertilizer used in the production of potatoes.