Ken Griffin says the Iran war is sending the world into a recession. He's the rare billionaire willing to put a date on it

"We're very focused on how long the stalemate will persist for," he told CNBC's Sarah Eisen in an interview at the Milken Global Conference in Beverly Hills (2).

He added that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another six to 12 months, "energy prices around the world will go materially higher [and] it will push the world into a global recession."

Griffin isn't alone in his prediction. Financial analyst Gary Shilling, who predicted the 1969-70 recession, told Business Insider that a U.S. recession is "almost inevitable" by the end of the year, pointing to a frozen housing market, collapsing capital expenditures in the private sector and a weakening consumer base (3).

Are we in a 'boomcession'?

While Griffin believes the U.S. will be largely shielded from the worst of a recession due to its energy independence, many Americans are already feeling the pain of escalating costs and eroding purchasing power, especially at a time when many are worried about their jobs being replaced by AI (4).

More than half (55%) of Americans say their financial situation is deteriorating, according to Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance survey, conducted April 1-15 (5).

Overall, the Gallup poll found that Americans are concerned about affordability, "with combined mentions of inflation, energy, housing and healthcare costs — along with college expenses, transportation costs and childcare — far exceeding all other types of financial concerns."

Yet, the economy is humming along.

This phenomenon is referred to as a 'boomcession,' a term coined by pundit Matt Stoller, a research director at the American Economic Liberties Project, a nonpartisan think tank. A boomcession occurs when the economy is doing well, "but ordinary people are saying they're not," he told CNBC (6).

Stoller added that it explains why GDP growth hasn't correlated with declining consumer sentiment (7). Consumer expectations that inflation will increase in both the short and medium term are growing, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's March 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations (8).

More than half (55%) of Americans say they carry credit card balances to cover essential expenses, according to a report by Achieve, a debt management company. Half are absorbing the squeeze of rising costs by reducing their spending on basic needs, while 34% are racking up credit card debt. An additional 25% have pulled funds from emergency funds or short-term savings (9).

"This is what the K-shaped economy looks like in the real world," Andrew Housser, Achieve's co-founder and co-CEO, said in a statement. "There's an affluent half of the population whose financial lives aren't disrupted by momentary inconveniences. But for everyone else, financial triage and trade-offs are a way of life."

How to prepare for a recession

Regardless of whether or not the world is heading into a recession, many Americans are feeling the squeeze, from the pump to housing costs to medical expenses.

During tough times, it can help to create a budget and financial plan. If you already have one, you may want to tweak it as needed. A qualified financial planner can help you stress-test your financial plan for shocks, like being laid off from your job or navigating a recession.