Labor statistics chief fired by Trump says his economy remains ‘remarkably resilient’ but warns growing uncertainty will have a cost

When asked about the split sentiment among Americans on the economy, economist Erika McEntarfer, who previously served as the Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), told Moneywise that “really, the story is the economy's been remarkably resilient over the last year, despite lots of additional policy uncertainty and tariff disputes. A lot of the economic data has held up fairly well.”

McEntarfer added, though, that “the underlying economic environment remains fraught with uncertainty” related to everything from trade policy and Federal Reserve independence to the cost of living and the labor market.

“And that's fueling a fair amount of anxiety among businesses and individuals in the economy,” she said. “So they may not be feeling confident despite fairly good economic data.”

The assessment of Trump’s economy comes less than a year after the president fired McEntarfer as BLS commissioner, baselessly accusing her of releasing a ”rigged” jobs report meant to make him and GOP lawmakers look bad (3).

Nevertheless, one year into Trump’s second term, McEntarfer offered a balanced take on the president’s handling of the economy — a key issue that propelled him back to the Oval Office in the last election.

Measuring the successes of Trump’s economy

While calling the economy a “miracle” is a trademark Trump overstatement, the president did notch some big economic wins in 2025.

“Economic growth came in very solidly over the last year. The stock market is doing fairly well after a dip in April around Liberation Day,” McEntarfer explained.

“And the labor market, while cooling, [shows] unemployment remains low and there are real earnings gains. So if you're looking for positive news in the data, there's a fair amount there.”

Inflation had its ups and downs but didn’t reach the dire levels many anticipated, and consumer spending remained strong — albeit mostly among high-income households making more than $125,000 a year (4).

Meanwhile, GDP continued to climb, hitting $31.4 trillion in Q4 last year, up 1.5% over Q3 after jumping 4.4% from Q2 (5). And, according to FactCheck.org, since Trump’s return to the White House, the stock market has “continued to set new records.”

Chief economist for RSM US Joseph Brusuelas called the economy a $30 trillion “dynamic and resilient beast” near the end of 2025, but warned that “it's going to face a test here at the turn of the year” due to “adverse policy shocks emanating from Washington,” along with his expectation that the unemployment rate could rise (6).

Waiting for the miracle

That unemployment rate, in fact, hit 4.5% in November — the highest since October 2021 — before dipping slightly down to 4.4% where it has held steady since December (7). The U.S. also only added 584,000 jobs in 2025 — a drop from the two million added in 2024 and the lowest figure since 2020.

Jason Draho of UBS Global Wealth Management told Business Insider (8) that issues like policy uncertainty, recession fears and tariffs "made companies a little more reluctant to invest, to hire, if you're not sure how much of an overall economic drag that tariffs would have.”

And McEntarfer, too, warned that the labor market “stands out” in terms of risk, noting that stagnant hiring and slow job growth create “fragile conditions for any future negative shocks.”

As well, the costs of everything from food to energy jumped in 2025, with the BLS reporting an all items index average increase of 2.7% (9).

A 20% increase in Affordable Care Act premiums (10) added to the economic crunch, while the Trump administration announced potential strategies (11) to address what Realtor.com analyst Hannah Jones called the “persistent affordability challenges and a shortage of reasonably priced homes” (12).

Tariffs, however, remain Trump’s signature policy and the one he championed as the driver of his “economic miracle.” But Tax Foundation data (13) shows that they added an average tax increase of $1,000 per household last year, with a $1,300 blow possible this year.